On May 19, at around 4 p.m. Turkish time, Iranian news agencies reported that the helicopter carrying President Ibrahim Reisi lost contact. Reisi had traveled to the region with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to inaugurate the Kizil Kalesi Dam, jointly built by the two countries on the Aras River on the border with Azerbaijan, and had chosen to travel by helicopter from Hudaferin region to Tabriz. In addition to Reisi, there were 7 other people in the helicopter. We will talk about 3 very important names in more detail below. The 4 people who lost their lives in the crash were Seyed Mehdi Mousavi, the head of Reisi's guard team, the helicopter pilot Colonel Seyed Tahir Mustafavi, the co-pilot Colonel Mohsen Deryanoush and the flight technician Major Behrouz Gadimi.
Let's take a closer look at the other VIPs who lost their lives in the helicopter crash;
Hossein Amir Abdollahian: Iran's foreign minister, who was on board the downed helicopter with President Reisi, played an important role in shifting Iran's foreign policy from engagement with the West to developing relations with its regional neighbors. Amir Abdollahian, 60, has held various posts in the Iranian Foreign Ministry since 1997, including Ambassador to Bahrain and Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs. Reisi had nominated him as foreign minister after becoming president in 2021. Amir Abdollahian helped restore Iran's diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia as part of a deal brokered by China. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Amir Abdollahian has been traveling around the Middle East to coordinate with allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to communicate Iran's positions to countries in the region. He holds a PhD in international relations from Tehran University.
Malik Rahmati Malik Rahmati was recently appointed by the Iranian cabinet as the new governor of East Azerbaijan province. Prior to this, he held various positions within Iran's political system. He was previously appointed head of Iran's Privatization Organization and deputy director of Astan Quds Razavi (AQR), one of Iran's major religious institutions. Rahmati was also the chairman of the Razavi Economic Organization, which was established in the late 1990s to provide financial resources for the AQR, and a board member and vice chairman of the Kowsar Economic Organization, which operates in several economic sectors, including mining, agriculture and health. Rahmati also held various administrative positions in Iran's Interior Ministry.
Ayatollah Mohammad Ali al-Hashim: Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's representative in the province of East Azerbaijan and the imam of Tabriz, Mohammad Ali al-Hashim, was perhaps more important than the President among the dead, but more on that in a moment. He was also a member of the provincial council of the Consultative Council and a provincial deputy in the Assembly of Experts.
President Reisi and his accompanying delegation, including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, departed in three helicopters, but after a while, Iranian officials announced that the helicopter carrying the President and Foreign Minister made a hard landing. These three helicopters were on their way back after the ceremony mentioned above. In fact, although all three helicopters followed the same altitude and the same route, only the VIP helicopter could not pass through the valley and the other two passed without any problems. Then the media started discussing whether the helicopter crashed or landed hard, whether something happened to Reisi, whether they were injured, whether their location was known. But then inconsistent information started to fly in Iranian and world news agencies. For example, Reuters reported from the beginning that the helicopter had been found, when in fact it had not. Likewise, Sky News, Al Jazeera, the Iranian Red Crescent and the Iranian vice president announced conflicting reports, with one saying it had not been found and the other saying it had. Then Iranian state television made it clear that the helicopter had not yet been found. Also, some American news channels first reported that Reisi had been rescued and was now moving by land. On the other hand, there was a complete chaos on social media; a lot of inconsistent news like it crashed, it didn't crash, it made an emergency landing because there was fog but it was mistaken for an accident because of the hard landing, they died, they are alive, they were found, they were not found, etc. were flying in the air.
As someone who knows the region, I can tell you that this is a forested-mountainous area that is foggy most of the year. Especially during these periods, serious cold temperatures and even snowfall can be effective. On the night of May 19, after the accident, there were reports of terrible fog and -25 degrees Celsius cold. There was even footage of a wolf pack attacking the search and rescue team in the area, with the wolf pack attacking the crowded search and rescue team and injuring two people. So the environment and conditions are really challenging.
Let's go on, a little while later, a statement came from the European Union saying that we have activated the rapid response satellite mapping service at the request of Iran. In the minutes that followed, almost the whole world announced that they were following the issue closely. Adding to all these difficult conditions the darkening weather after the search and rescue efforts were prolonged, Iranian officials asked for help from Turkey through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Within half an hour, Turkey sent a fully equipped Akinci drone and a Kuger-type helicopter to the region to participate in the search and rescue of the downed helicopter, which became the most watched flight in the world on the Flightradar24 website. Throughout the night, millions of people around the world had the opportunity to watch the search operations live. At around 02:00 local time, Akinci01 detected a temperature center and directed its coordinates to Kuger with its night vision camera, confirming the crash site. The Iranian authorities were then immediately notified and rescue teams arrived in the area and recovered the bodies.
Since Akıncı advanced drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle that can also be used for offensive purposes, can be equipped with air-to-air rockets, can fly continuously for 24 hours at an altitude of 45 thousand feet, and is equipped with many state-of-the-art imaging sensors, it can easily move to hard-to-reach areas and conduct advanced search activities. Moreover, it can provide communication and logistic support by acting as a mobile base station, especially in disaster areas where GSM signals are cut off. Thanks to these capabilities, it played an effective role in reaching President Reisi and his entourage in a short time under the most difficult and foggy night conditions with limited visibility. Although Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei thanked Turkey for its help and support, the Iranian media seems to have been less than pleased. Comments such as "we don't even have a night vision helicopter" were made and the government was criticized. Moreover, Iranian media reports on May 20 took the criticism a notch higher, claiming that the Akinci drone, which was flying over the country to locate the downed helicopter, flew over the country's military facilities and missile centers. The Iranian media, concerned about the detection of the location of missiles that Iran uses as a threat to other countries, characterized this as a "vulnerability against Turkey".
In the meantime, it was also announced that the helicopter that buried Reisi and his companions was a US-made Bell 212, which was about 50 years old and no longer in production. Although proper maintenance of helicopters is much more important than their age in terms of technical flight life and flight safety. However, it is a fact that due to the sanctions imposed by the US against Iran since the 1980s, there have been problems in obtaining spare parts and the helicopters have been deprived of modern flight devices that were added to the model for development purposes. As is known, it is believed that modern helicopters do not have electronic equipment such as Radar Altimeter, Ground Approach Warning System (GPWS), Fog Radar, Thermal Cameras and Autonomous Flight Systems, which support safe flight in low visibility conditions. On the other hand, the flight should have been canceled by the pilots due to unfavorable weather conditions. Nevertheless, it is possible that Reisi and his entourage wanted to return to Tehran as soon as possible due to their busy schedules, so they accepted these risks and convinced (!) the pilots to do so.
Now we need to talk a little bit about Iran's form of government. Because a proper understanding of what follows depends on this information. The governance structure of Iran is quite different from other republics. In Iran, the religious leadership represents the highest authority of the country. The Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a figure who determines the political, religious and military decisions of the state, and is superior to the popularly elected President (Ibrahim Reisi). Moreover, in Iran, the president has significant powers as the country's top executive, but within the political system of the Islamic Republic, he is under the authority of the supreme leader and cannot act without his knowledge and approval. The competent body for electing the religious leader in Iran is an institution known as the "Guidance Council (Majlis-e Hubregan-i)". The Guidance Council consists of six permanent members and six alternate members. The majority of these members are appointed by Iran's supreme religious leader. The Guidance Council follows a rigorous process to identify suitable candidates for religious leadership. These candidates are expected to have deep knowledge and experience in Islamic sciences. The Council usually selects candidates from among Iran's religious and political leaders. From among the candidates selected by the Guidance Council, the most suitable person is appointed as the Supreme Leader of Iran. This appointment process can often be opaque and may not include a public selection process. Iran's supreme leader remains in this position for the rest of his life, usually until his death. Iran's supreme leader combines both political and religious leadership roles in fulfilling his role as supreme leader. Therefore, for Shi'a, he is considered not only the political leader of Iran, but also its spiritual leader and guide. Religious leadership in Shi'ism is centered around the concept of imamah, a sacred figure who is believed to best represent the will of God. If we try to summarize the Shia understanding of imamah very briefly; the person who is the imam has the same characteristics as the prophet, except for receiving revelation, and is believed to be innocent, that is, protected from sin and error, just like the prophet. Therefore, the people are obliged to obey the imam unconditionally, which already determines the authority of the Supreme Leader, who, according to the Iranian regime, is the Imam of the time. Another important actor in the Iranian regime is the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC is Iran's most important armed force. It has a primary role in all military fields, but its mandate is not limited to the military system. It has become the most important economic force in the country, as it also plays a leading role in the country's reconstruction, development and progress. Today, Iran's largest companies are essentially owned by the IRGC. As such, the IRGC is the backbone of Iran in both military and commercial fields. It should be noted that the commercial activities of the IRGC are also exempt from taxation. This information will shed light on the issues we will begin to examine below.
What we have described so far has been compiled from a completely objective point of view and from information published in open sources about the heinous accident. The following part of the article should be evaluated more from the perspective of the author's personal point of view and the readings he has done. There are two fundamental questions that will inspire this part. Could the helicopter crash have been an assassination? If so, who benefits the most from it?
We can answer these questions more easily by doing the following readings.
Although there is no data, explanation or claim of responsibility, this incident in Iran brings to mind the recent escalation of Israeli-Iranian tensions. Iran's airstrike on Israel on the night of April 13, which significantly raised the rules of military engagement, was not responded to by Israel with a similar escalation under pressure from the United States. If this was an Israeli sabotage, it would be easy to deny, only the two sides would be aware of the background and perhaps the escalation could be reduced for a while.
There are important developments in the world on the Turkish-Azeri axis, the issue of Turanian unity is very serious. Iran is the country most concerned about this situation. Therefore, its policy on the opening of the Zangezur corridor has been criticized by Turkey and Azerbaijan. As it is known, Iran supported Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and allowed the passage of weapons from Greece and France and PKK terrorist groups from the Syria-Iraq region.
The involvement of some political groups within the country. The decision to fly a very old helicopter in bad weather conditions in a mountainous region reinforces such rumors. Nevertheless, the symbolic importance of the Hudaferin region and the fact that Seyyed Mohammad Merendi, a senior Iranian political communicator, posted a post on the Palestinian resistance after the incident suggest that the possibility of an external dimension cannot be dismissed.
On the domestic front, with Ibrahim Reisi completely out of the picture, the chances of Mujtaba Khamenei, the son of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, to succeed his father have increased considerably. Accordingly, the current Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Galibaf, an important ally of his, has a better chance of becoming President of the Republic in the election to be held in 50 days. With the evolution of a unified governance structure, the post-Khamenei transition scenarios will be more smoothly realized.
The Iranian political system is hierarchical. However, as expected, this has not created complete harmony. The power struggle between the religious leader and the president has been clearly observed in Iranian politics in every period. Add to this the IRGC's power that can change the balance in Iranian politics and the situation becomes even more complicated. General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC, was known as one of the most important figures determining Iran's policies in the region, from Afghanistan to Iraq, Syria to Lebanon. He has been described as the director and organizer of many political assassinations against the regime on behalf of Iran. Due to his role as a personal executioner in political murders in his youth, he quickly advanced in his organization and rose to the highest position. The reason for his death seemed to be that US President Trump wanted to weaken Iran's position in Iraq and Syria. But in the background, Qassem Soleimani was a person who had all the secret information of the mullah regime. On the other hand, the Hashd al-Shaabi militia under Soleimani's command was held responsible for the inhuman massacres, rapes and other atrocities committed against Sunni Muslims. A deeper view is that Soleimani's emergence as a hero and future leader in the Shiite world, and naturally in Iran, may have worried the mullah regime and ultimately led to the decision to sacrifice him. This is because the intelligence on Soleimani's assassination seems to have come from Iran. The IRGC may have somehow equalized the situation.
One of those killed in the crash was Ayatollah Mohammad Ali al Hashemi, about whom I gave you a little tip at the beginning. The elimination of Ali al Hashemi may have been more demanded from inside Iran than the other senior officials on board the helicopter. To the point of sacrificing the President and the Foreign Minister. Inside Iran, Ali al Hashemi is called the imam of East Azerbaijan. Ali Khamenei's entire inner circle and even his son Mojtaba Khamenei and perhaps most importantly the IRGC hate this man. As we mentioned above, the Iranian Mullah Regime supported Armenia during the Karabakh war. However, Armenia is Orthodox Christian and Azerbaijan is Muslim. So much so that Khamenei once offered a special prayer for Armenia. However, Ali Al Hashem, the so-called imam of East Azerbaijan, under all pressure, supported Azerbaijan and said "Azerbaijan is Muslim, Armenia is Christian". Of course, this did not go unnoticed by the Mullah regime and the IRGC and caused hatred.
Turkey-Azerbaijan-Iran rapprochement: Israel's Palestinian policies and the recent genocide in Gaza have brought a partnership on the Turkish-Iranian axis to the agenda, and the opening on the day of the accident may further strengthen Azerbaijan-Iran rapprochement... From a geopolitical point of view, this situation is undesirable for some EU countries, China and especially the UK. This is because the frictions between Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine are forcing the US to focus its attention on this region. A spring weather to be experienced in this region will cause the US to refocus on the Pacific region and spend its power there. China's desire for this is easily understandable. But here some of our readers may ask, why the UK? Because the UK-based City of London capital has invested in China and does not want the dollar to become the world currency. Because the biggest clash with the US-based capital groups is taking place today with the City of London capital. As you know, the world hegemony and world money that changed hands after World War II evolved from the UK-Sterling-Rothschild axis to the US-Dollar-Rockafeller axis. To avenge this, the UK-based City of London capital strongly opposes a dollar-dependent world policy. So why is it that the EU prefers the US to stay in a region close to the Russia-Ukraine war rather than heading towards the pacific. They know that if the US leaves, a Russian threat awaits them at the door.
Of course, none of these geopolitical balances give a clear answer to the question of assassination. Therefore, it seems that this situation will puzzle us for a while.
In conclusion, the key issue isn't who shot down the helicopter but what the future holds and the challenges that lie ahead. To understand this situation better, we must ask: How will these events impact the region?
If the incident was merely an accident, it will have little to no special impact on the region. According to the Iranian Constitution, if the President dies, is impeached, becomes ill, or is unable to serve for any reason for more than two months, the First Vice-President takes over presidential duties with the approval of the Supreme Leader. A three-member council comprising the acting President (First Vice President), the Speaker of the Majlis, and the Head of the Judiciary must then organize early elections to choose a new President within 50 days. This ensures the continuity of Iran's domestic and foreign policies, as the Supreme Leader, not the President, determines the fundamental policies of the country.
If sabotage was involved, it is unlikely to be revealed, so its impact on regional dynamics may be minimal. However, given the already highly tense and fragile regional situation since October 7, if Iran decides to respond aggressively to Israel, there could be significant actions against Israeli targets either within the country or in a third country. Importantly, any such response would need to be deniable. It is crucial to note that, at this time, there are no indications or evidence of sabotage.
