Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

 

The main purpose of this series of articles is to provide a background for understanding the developments on Turkey's southern borders and then to analyze their possible effects on the region.

With this introduction, the series, which will consist of 7 articles in total, has been presented to you in a historical and logical order. I firmly believe that it will constitute a very serious information infrastructure for our readers interested in regional politics.

Happy reading...

Article Sequence

1. Root Causes of Developments (this article!)

2. Threats to National Security

3. The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

4. Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

5. Situation of Kurdish Groups and Management Strategies

6. The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

Main Causes of Developments

Recent developments on Turkey's southern border are shaped by a combination of historical, geopolitical, ethnic and economic factors. These problems have a complex structure that bears the influence of both regional and global powers. The main reasons for these developments are analyzed below:
1. Historical and Geopolitical Factors
a. Legacy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement: The partition of the Ottoman territories after World War I led to borders being drawn without taking into account local social realities.This laid the foundation for the ethnic, religious and sectarian conflicts that still persist on the Turkey-Syria-Iraq axis.
b. The Kurdish Question: The concentration of the Kurdish population on Turkey's southern border has been exploited by terrorist organizations and separatist movements in the region.Turkey's cross-border operations are aimed at eliminating this threat.
c. Syrian Civil War The war that started in 2011 led to the de facto disintegration of Syria and Turkey's direct involvement for border security. The support of organizations that directly support terrorism, such as the PYD/YPG, by global powers such as the United States has created more serious security problems on Turkey's southern border.
2. Power Imbalance and Actors' Interests
a. Regional Power Struggle:
I. Turkey: Turkey wants to eliminate the terrorist threat on its southern border and create safe zones for Syrian refugees.
II. Iran: It wants to maintain its Shiite expansionism in the region and its influence over the Syrian regime
III. Russia and the United States:Both countries use Syria as a chessboard to protect their energy routes and strategic influence over the Middle East.
b. Presence of Terrorist Organizations: The presence of the PYD/YPG, an extension of the PKK, in northern Syria directly threatens Turkey's national security.
3. Economic and Energy Policies
a. Energy Corridors: Turkey's southern border is located at a strategic point for the transportation of Middle Eastern energy resources to Europe.Instability in northern Syria jeopardizes the security of these energy lines.
b. Displaced Population and Migration Problem: The Syrian Civil War has led to the displacement of millions of people. Turkey is hosting around 4 million Syrian refugees, posing economic and social challenges.
4. Ethnic and Sectarian Dynamics
a. Ethnic Segregation:The intermingling of Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen and other ethnic groups on both sides of the border is a constant source of tension.
b. Sectarian Divide: The Sunni-Shiite rivalry is deepening conflicts along Turkey's southern border. Iran and Hezbollah use this situation to strengthen the Shiite axis.
5. Intervention of Global Powers
a. US Policy:The US supported the YPG under the pretext of fighting Daesh, which led to tense relations with Turkey.
b. Russia's Strategy: Russia aims to increase its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean by siding with the Syrian regime. Despite occasional cooperation between Turkey and Russia, this alliance is fragile.
6. Turkey's Policies
a. Cross-Border Operations:Turkey has intervened in operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring to ensure border security and minimize the terrorist threat posed by organizations such as PYD/YPG.
b. Safe Zone Plan: Turkey wants to create a safe zone in northern Syria to ensure the return of Syrian refugees and balance the demographic structure.

Next article Threats to National Security

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Threats to National Security

Developments on Turkey's southern border pose multidimensional and serious threats to national security. These threats have both direct effects in the short term and have elements that challenge Turkey's regional and global position in the long term. These threats are discussed in detail below:
1. Terror Threat
PKK/YPG/PYD Presence: Turkey views the YPG and PYD as the PKK's extension in Syria.YPG-controlled areas in northern Syria have become the center of terrorist attacks and logistics lines against Turkey.
a. Border Security:Rocket attacks and terrorist infiltration into Turkey's border areas threaten the security of the civilian population.
b. Terrorist Records: The growing instability in Turkey's south allows terrorist organizations more room for maneuver.
2. Regional Separatism and Ethnic Tensions
a. Kurdish Separatism: The exploitation of the Kurdish population on Turkey's southern border by the PYD/YPG and other separatist elements poses a threat to national unity.A PYD/YPG-backed "autonomous structure" or "state" initiative could have a domino effect along Turkey's borders.
b. Demographic Manipulation: The PYD/YPG's efforts to change the demographic structure in northern Syria weaken Turkmen and Arab communities and fuel regional separatism.
3. Refugee Crisis
a. Economic and Social Impacts: Turkey is hosting around 4 million refugees (unofficial figures put the number at 10 million!) fleeing the Syrian civil war.This leads to strained economic resources and social tensions.
b. Difficulty of Returns: Despite efforts to establish safe zones, instability in Syria makes it difficult for refugees to return. This affects Turkey's internal dynamics in the long run.
4. Energy Security
Threat to Energy Corridors: Turkey's southern border is a transit point for energy lines from the Middle East to Europe. Instability in the region could jeopardize the security of energy projects and negatively affect Turkey's energy supply security.
5. International Power Struggles
a. US Support for the YPG: The US arms and logistical support to the YPG is causing a serious crisis of confidence in Turkey's alliance relations.This situation forces Turkey to question the actions of its strategic allies and therefore to pursue a more aggressive defense policy.
b. Balances with Russia: Russia's backing of the Assad regime and its increased military presence in Syria narrows Turkey's room for maneuver. At the same time, it causes periodic tensions in Turkey-Russia relations.
6. Religious and Sectarian Conflicts
a. Sectarian Tensions: Conflicts on the Shiite-Sunni axis on Turkey's southern border have led Iran to increase its influence in the region.This carries the risk of transferring regional sectarian tensions to Turkey.
b. Presence of Radical Groups: Radical groups such as DAESH continue to operate in the border regions. The risk of attacks by these groups against Turkey is still present.
7. Border Security and Sovereignty Issues
a. Physical Security Threats:Instability along the border poses a direct threat to Turkey's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
b. Smuggling and Crime Networks: Gaps in the region lead to an increase in illegal activities such as human trafficking, arms trade and drug trafficking.
8. International Pressures and Diplomatic Risks
a. Policies of Western Countries: Western countries' support for anti-Turkey terrorist organizations is closely monitored by Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey's cross-border operations against groups supported by Western countries in accordance with international rules of engagement are unfairly criticized by Western countries.While this situation puts Turkey at risk of diplomatic isolation in the international arena, Turkey does not back down on this issue in line with its legal rights.
b. Economic Sanctions: Turkey's military activities in the region may be met with threats of sanctions by some countries. This may affect economic stability.
Conclusion: Developments on Turkey's southern border pose multidimensional threats to both national security and regional stability. In response to these threats, Turkey has developed strategies such as cross-border operations, the creation of safe zones and the effective use of international diplomacy. However, the long-term success of these strategies depends on eliminating instability in the region and maintaining the balance between international powers.
The strategies of global powers such as the US and Russia in Syria and Iraq directly affect Turkey due to conflicts of interest and power struggles in the region. These impacts are multifaceted, including security, diplomacy, economic and military policies. Below, the effects of these powers' strategies on Turkey are discussed in detail:
1. US Strategies and Their Impact on Turkey
a. US Strategy in the Region
Cooperation with YPG/PYD The US has cooperated militarily with the YPG/PYD in northern Syria under the pretext of fighting DAESH. This cooperation includes arming and politically supporting the YPG while ignoring Turkey's security concerns.
Containing Iran: The US supports Kurdish groups and some of its Arab allies in the region to limit Iran's expanding influence through Syria and Iraq.
Israel's Security:In order to ensure Israel's security, the US is taking measures against Iran and trying to shift the balance of power in Syria in its favor.
b. Impact on Turkey
PKK/YPG Problem The weapons provided by the US to the YPG have increased the terrorist threat on Turkey's southern border. The YPG's organic ties with the PKK cause Turkey to view this cooperation as a direct national security threat. Turkey's trust in the US has been shaken and NATO alliance relations have been strained.
Cross-Border Operations: The US military presence in Syria and its support for the YPG has complicated Turkey's operations and hampered efforts to establish a "safe zone" in northern Syria.
Economic and Diplomatic Pressures: The US has criticized Turkey's operations, imposed various economic sanctions and exerted diplomatic pressure against Turkey.
NATO Relations: The US YPG policy has caused Turkey to reconsider its position within NATO and pushed Turkey to question its alliance relations.
2. Russia's Strategies and Their Impact on Turkey
a. Russia's Strategy in the Region
Supporting the Assad Regime: With its military presence in Syria, Russia has ensured the survival of the Assad regime and turned Syria into a strategic sphere of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Rivalry with the United States: Russia plays an active role in Syria to limit the influence of the US in the region and to have a greater say in the global balance of power.
Cooperation and Competition with TurkeyWhile Russia is trying to weaken the Western alliance by cooperating with Turkey, it displays a competitive attitude towards Turkey on some issues in Syria.
b. Impact on Turkey
Relations with the Assad Regime Russia supports a direct dialogue between Turkey and the Assad regime, but despite Turkey's attempts, the Assad regime refrains from engaging in dialogue. Russia's military presence in Syria limits the room for maneuver for Turkey's cross-border operations.
Astana Process: Turkey, together with Russia and Iran, continues to search for a solution in Syria within the framework of the Astana Process However, Russia's support for the Assad regime in this process makes it difficult for Turkey to achieve its goals.
Idlib Crisis: Russia's military operations in Idlib and its attacks against groups supported by Turkey have created tension between the two countries. This situation increased Turkey's responsibility to defend its observation posts in Idlib, the massacres committed by the regime against its own people resulted in the people of the region seeking refuge in Turkey, Turkey's humanitarian attitude and assistance to the people of the region led to a great sympathy for Turkey and an inevitable hatred against the regime, and eventually the Assad regime completely lost control in this region.
Energy and Economic Relations: Turkey's cooperation with Russia in the fields of energy (such as TurkStream) and defense (S-400 systems), while creating problems in relations with the West, has increased Russia's influence over Turkey.
3. Conflict Points of Global Powers
US-Russia Rivalry: The US and Russia's conflict of interest in Syria forces Turkey to pursue a policy of balance between the two powers. On the one hand, Turkey maintains its relations with the US as a NATO ally, while on the other hand, it tries to protect its own interests by cooperating with Russia. This situation complicates Turkey's foreign policy.
Turkey's Strategic Position: Due to Turkey's geopolitical position, the US and Russia want to include Ankara in their strategies. Turkey tries to develop an independent policy by taking advantage of the competition between these two powers. However, this situation occasionally leads to pressures and crises.
4. Turkey's Reactions and Strategies
Military Operations: Through cross-border operations, Turkey tries both to eliminate the YPG threat supported by the US and to balance the consequences of Russia's support for the Assad regime.
Balance Policy: Turkey pursues a policy of balance between the US and Russia, maintaining relations with both powers but acting independently to protect its national interests.
Multilateral Diplomacy: Turkey plays an active role in platforms such as the Astana Process and the Geneva Talks, simultaneously negotiating with both Russia and the United States.
Alliance Seeking: The US support for the YPG and Russia's support for Assad have led Turkey to seek new alliances and regional cooperation. In this context, Turkey has strengthened its relations with Qatar, Azerbaijan and other regional actors.

Next article: The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

The policies and attitudes of regional actors (such as Syria, Iraq and Iran) directly affect Turkey's strategies and policies on its southern border. Relations between these actors are highly complex due to historical tensions, ethno-religious structures and regional conflicts of interest. Below, the effects of these countries' attitudes on Turkey's policies are analyzed in detail:
1. Syria's Attitude
a. Assad Regime and Turkey
I. Hostility and Distrust: Since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, relations between Turkey and the Assad regime have been completely severed. While Turkey supports the opposition, the regime sees Turkey as an enemy.
II. Indirect Support to PKK/YPG: As a strategy against Turkey, the Assad regime occasionally engages in tactical cooperation with the YPG/PYD. This increases the terrorist threat on Turkey's southern border and reduces Turkey's faith in the Syrian government.
III. Turkey's Safe Zone Policy: Based on the Adana Memorandum signed with the Syrian government on October 20, 1998, Turkey has been conducting military operations against terrorist movements in the region that pose a threat to Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey's efforts to create a safe zone in northern Syria are seen as a violation of sovereignty by the Assad regime. This escalates tensions between the two countries.However, the dynamics of this zone are based on the above-mentioned mutual agreement between the two countries.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
Turkey's military operations in Syria have to take into account not only the YPG/PKK threat, but also the possible attacks of the Assad regime. Agreements with the regime's allies Russia and Iran limit Turkey's room for maneuver.
2. Iraq's Position
a. Central Government and Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)
I. PKK Presence in Iraq: The PKK is based in the Qandil Mountains and Sinjar region in northern Iraq. The central government's weakness in dealing with this organization leads to Turkey's cross-border operations.
II. The KRG's Dilemma: Although the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is uncomfortable with the PKK's presence in the region, it pursues an indirect policy of balancing with this organization through Kurdish nationalism.This complicates Turkey-IKBY relations from time to time.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
Turkey has been targeting the PKK's presence in northern Iraq through Claw-Kilit and similar operations. These operations are partially supported by the Iraqi government. Turkey aims to weaken PKK influence in the region by strengthening its economic relations with the KRG. However, Turkey's military operations in northern Iraq are generally shaped within the framework of international law, such as the right to self-defense and the fight against terrorism.If we take a look at this framework;
I. Article 51 of the UN Charter (Right to Self-Defense): Turkey exercises its right to self-defense to ensure its national security in the event of attacks on Turkish territory by terrorist organizations such as the PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan) in northern Iraq. Article 51 of the UN Charter gives a country the right to take military action to ensure its own security in the event of an armed attack. Turkey seeks to protect itself against terrorist attacks by the PKK. Turkey's human losses due to PKK terrorism are around 40,000, while its economic losses due to PKK terrorism are estimated at 2 billion dollars in total, including indirect losses.
II. Iraq's Consent and Cooperation: Turkey carries out all of its operations in communication with both the central Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional administrations and carries out these operations meticulously within the scope of the fight against terrorism, provided that these operations do not harm the territorial integrity of Iraq.
III. International Counter-Terrorism: Many international agreements, especially UN resolutions on counterterrorism, allow countries to fight terrorism beyond their borders. Turkey justifies such operations as part of its counterterrorism strategy, noting that the activities of the PKK and other terrorist groups in the region threaten global security.
IV. International Human Rights and Security Treaties: Turkey's military operations are also a reaction to instability and human rights violations in the region. Turkey acts with the thesis that conflicts in neighboring countries may pose a threat to its national security and justifies these theses on the basis of every operation it conducts and declares them in international fora.
3. Iran's Position
a. Shiite Crescent and Regional Rivalry
I. Shiite Expansionism Iran aims to create a "Shiite Crescent" by supporting Shiite groups in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Turkey's Sunni-dominated policies are seen as a factor hindering Iran's plans.
II. Tactical Cooperation with PKK/PYD: Iran uses the PKK and YPG as a counterweight against Turkey from time to time.It has indirect contacts with these organizations, especially in Syria and Iraq.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
The regional rivalry between Turkey and Iran makes Turkey's policies on its southern border more careful and multifaceted
Iranian-backed militia groups complicate Turkey's operations and pose a new threat on the Syria-Iraq line.
4. Impact of Regional Conflicts
a. Sectarian Wars: Shia-Sunni tensions on Turkey's southern border, fueled by Iran, are one of the main causes of instability in the region.Turkey's efforts to strengthen its relations with Sunni allies (e.g. Qatar and Saudi Arabia) have drawn the ire of Iran and the Assad regime.
b. The Kurdish Issue The Kurdish issue, which is a common denominator between Iraq, Syria and Turkey, is a factor that constantly affects relations between these countries. The support or suppression of Kurdish groups is shaped according to the interests of each actor.
5. General Effects on Turkey's Policies
a. Shaping Cross-Border Operations: Turkey's military operations in Iraq and Syria take into account the sovereignty sensitivities of these countries and Iran's influence.Shiite militia groups backed by Iran and the Syrian regime limit the scope of Turkey's operations.
b. Diplomatic Balances While Turkey cooperates with Russia and Iran on platforms such as the Astana Process, it is often forced to act alone due to the different interests of these countries. Security cooperation efforts with the Iraqi central government yield limited results.Therefore, Turkey uses military intervention as a "forced last resort".
c. Economic Relations Turkey is trying to increase its economic influence in the region through energy cooperation with the KRG. However, Iran and the Iraqi central government find such cooperation against their interests.

Next article: Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

Turkey's cross-border operations are a proactive defense policy against security threats along its southern border. These operations are carried out both to eliminate short-term security threats and to achieve long-term strategic objectives. Turkey's role in this process and the impact of cross-border operations can be evaluated under the following headings:
1. Eliminating Security Threats
a. Targeting Terrorist Organizations
Weakening the PKK and YPG: Through cross-border operations, Turkey has targeted PKK's bases in areas such as Qandil, Gara and Sinjar in Iraq and YPG's areas of control in northern Syria. These operations have severely limited the organizations' mobility.
Combating DAESH:Turkey, especially during Operation Euphrates Shield, has cleared DAESH from its border areas and prevented this threat from infiltrating into Turkey.
b. Ensuring Border Security
Operations have cut the transit routes of terrorist organizations on Turkey's southern border and made the border line more secure. This has increased the security of the civilian population and enabled the return of those living in the border areas.
2. Strategic Objectives
a. Establishing a Safe Zone
Turkey aimed to establish safe zones in northern Syria through operations such as Peace Spring, Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield.These zones aim both to ensure border security and to enable the return of Syrian refugees.
b. Maintaining Demographic Balance
The demographic changes caused by the PYD/YPG in northern Syria by driving Turkmen and Arab populations out of the region have been another target of Turkey's operations. Through these operations, Turkey aims to protect the demographic structure of the region and ensure that ethnic groups in the region live in balance.
3. Regional and Global Balances
a. Relations with the United States and Russia
Turkey's cross-border operations have created an area of direct conflict with the US support for the YPG This has led to tensions in Turkey's relations with the United States, which Turkey considers unworthy of an alliance.
Despite the cooperation with Russia in some areas in Syria, Moscow's support for the Assad regime has limited Turkey's room for maneuver at times.With the operations, Turkey has shown that it can act independently in this balance of power.
b. Iran and the Syrian Regime
The operations have limited Iran's influence in the region and weakened the Syrian regime's sovereignty claims on Turkey's southern border However, it also led to the formation of some regional alliances against Turkey.
4. Domestic Politics and Public Support
a. National Unity and Support
Turkey's cross-border operations have received a great deal of public support The operations are perceived as a policy that prioritizes the country's national security.However, the cost of the operations and international reactions have sometimes been criticized in domestic politics.
b. Seeking a Solution to the Refugee Crisis
Turkey has tried to prepare the ground for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country through the operations. This policy is also an attempt to respond to the economic and social concerns of the public.
5. Economic and Diplomatic Costs
a. Economic Cost
Cross-border operations have brought a significant military and economic cost.However, this cost is defended as a strategy to reduce security threats in the long run and prevent greater damage.
b. International Reactions
The operations have been criticized by many international actors, especially Western countries. The US and European countries characterized the operations as "ethnic cleansing" and "demographic engineering". On the other hand, Turkey has repeatedly asserted that the operations were carried out within the framework of international law and based on the right to self-defense.
6. Successes and Challenges of the Operations
a. Successes
* Stopping infiltrations and terrorist attacks from the region into Turkish territory
* Limiting the PKK/YPG's logistical and mobility capabilities
* Creating safe zones and increasing border security
* Preparing the infrastructure for the return of refugees
b.Challenges
* Operations create a risk of conflict with regional actors and global powers
* YPG's potential to regain power with international support
* Operations take time to translate into long-term stability and peace
* Ancient expectations of countries such as Israel over the region

Next article: The Situation and Management Strategies of Kurdish Groups

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Situation of Kurdish Groups and Management Strategies

Developments in the region have had significant political, military and social impacts on Kurdish groups. The support of these groups by regional and international actors has become an important issue in Turkey's national security and foreign policy. Below, the effects of the developments on Kurdish groups and Turkey's strategies to manage this situation are analyzed:
1. The Effects of Regional Developments on Kurdish Groups
a. Syrian Kurds (PYD/YPG and SDF)
US Support and Empowerment: The US support for the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has increased its military power and political legitimacy. Semi-autonomous administrations were established in the regions controlled by the YPG, which posed a serious threat to Turkey's border security. Both groups implicitly support the PKK.
Cooperation with Russia Russia has at times tried to put pressure on Turkey by cooperating with the YPG. This has expanded the YPG's political room for maneuver in the region.
Demographic Change:The YPG's displacement of Turkmen and Arab populations in the areas under its control through threats and force has changed the demographic structure, which has increased Turkey's concerns.
b. Iraqi Kurds (KDP and PUK)
Independence Referendum and its Results: The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) became isolated in the international arena with its independence referendum in 2017. This process allowed Turkey to increase its economic and political influence over the KRG.
PKK Presence: The PKK has attempted to gain strength in the Qandil and Sinjar regions in northern Iraq.However, this has created tensions between the KRG administration and the PKK and turned into a ground to support Turkey's cross-border operations.
c. Iranian Kurds
Iran's Repression: Iran has implemented repressive policies against its own Kurdish population, which has led some of the Kurdish groups in the region to cooperate with Turkey
Kurdish Movements Across Borders: In its relations with Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq, Iran has tried to balance Turkey's influence in the region.
2. Turkey's Strategies to Manage the Situation
A. Diplomatic and Military Measures
Cross-Border Operations: Through operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Peace Spring and Claw Series, Turkey has weakened the YPG's presence along the border and cut the PKK's logistical lines. These operations have increased Turkey's security by shrinking the areas controlled by Kurdish groups.
Cooperation with Local Groups By cooperating with Arab and Turkmen groups in northern Syria, Turkey has created a balance against the YPG.
Cooperation with the KRG Turkey has sought to limit the PKK's influence in Iraq by strengthening its economic and political relations with the KRG. This cooperation has also been reinforced through energy projects (e.g. oil trade).
B. Policies Towards the Kurdish People
Preventing Ethnic Disintegration: Turkey has been developing policies that separate the Kurdish people in the region from terrorist organizations and do not antagonize them against Turkey. In this context, the aim is to strengthen economic and social ties with the Kurdish population in the region and steps are being taken in this direction.
Economic Development: Implementing infrastructure projects and economic development plans in the safe zones created in northern Syria can increase the Kurdish population's trust in Turkey.
C. International Relations and Lobbies
Negotiations with the US Turkey has been reminding the US to stop its support to the YPG and has been negotiating on the basis of NATO alliance.
Balanced Relations with Russia Aware of the need to increase areas of cooperation with Russia in order to limit Russia's support for the Assad regime and the YPG, Turkey is taking decisive steps in this regard.
International Law and Legitimacy: Turkey should continue to justify its cross-border operations within the framework of international law to avoid criticism from the West.
D. Long-Term Solutions
Regional Cooperation Turkey can cooperate with Iraq and Iran to develop a common policy against the regional Kurdish groups' efforts for independence or autonomy.
Isolation of Terrorist Organizations To prevent organizations such as the PKK and YPG from receiving international support, Turkey should conduct diplomatic campaigns highlighting the terrorist links of these groups.
Resolving the Kurdish Question: Turkey's development of inclusive and equitable policies towards its own Kurdish citizens could allow it to take a stronger stance in dealing with regional Kurdish groups.

Next article: The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

a. Predictions for the Future of Syria: The future of Syria remains uncertain depending on both regional and international dynamics. However, in light of the current situation and trends, several scenarios stand out:
1. Continuation of the Current Situation (Frozen Conflict)
Syria may evolve into a "frozen conflict" scenario in which the de facto division in the north, center and south continues and low intensity conflicts continue.
YPG/SDF control of the north may continue, albeit limited by Turkey's cross-border operations. The sympathy and satisfaction of the people of the region based on Turkey will cause this situation to change rapidly.
In the center, the Assad regime may remain in power with the support of Russia and Iran, but economic difficulties may weaken its authority. The steady loss of controlled territory across Syria is weakening the Assad regime and causing it to lose supporters, which could ultimately result in the loss of Russian and Iranian support.
Local resistance to the regime in areas such as Daraa in the south and instability in areas close to the Jordanian border may continue.
Implications for Turkey: The Assad regime's ever-decreasing dominance over Syrian territory will cause Turkey's security concerns to persist. In particular, the continued presence of the YPG with US support could push Turkey to conduct more cross-border operations. The possibility of refugees becoming permanent could strain Turkey's socioeconomic and political balances and lead Turkey to take countermeasures.
2. Strengthening the Assad Regime
With the support of Iran and Russia, the regime may try to regain control over large parts of the country However, this may meet with limited success due to the economic/military costs, the disintegration of the status quo and the local population's hatred of the Assad regime.
Gradual recognition of the regime by the international community (especially Arab countries) could increase Assad's legitimacy. Of course, harsh sanctions against the Arabs, the Kurdish groups playing with the demographic structure in support of the regime and the Iranian-backed Shiite groups gaining power will have to be prevented.
Impact on Turkey: The strengthening of the Assad regime may lead Turkey to reassess its relations with the opposition in Syria. In this case, the need for direct dialog with the regime may arise. Given the Assad regime's long-standing refusal to engage in dialogue, this may strengthen Turkey's position in the international community.
3. A Solution with the Cooperation of Regional and International Actors (Low Probability)
If the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and other actors agree on a joint solution, Syria's reunification and transition to a federal structure could be on the agenda Although this scenario would provide some autonomy to the YPG/SDF and a political solution between the opposition and the regime, this is a red line for Turkey and will not be accepted. This situation may result in Turkey's actualization of the borders of Misak-ı Milli.
Impact on Turkey: Although this scenario may have positive effects for Turkey as it may facilitate the return of refugees, it is the scenario with the most complex consequences.
4. A New Civil Conflict or State Collapse
In the event of regime weakening or a decline in international support, Syria could become a completely collapsed state This scenario could lead to a resurgence of regional factions. This could result in Turkey's actualization of the borders of Misak-ı Milli.
Impact on Turkey: Security risks on the southern border would increase and Turkey could face a larger migration wave. On the other hand, the cross-border influence of radical groups could pose a serious threat to Turkey's internal security.Turkey may take sanctions with decisive consequences.
b. Possible Changes in Turkey's Relations with its Allies in the Region The future of Syria may reshape Turkey's relations with its regional allies. These dynamics can be summarized as follows:
1. Relations with the United States
YPG Support As long as US support for the YPG continues, tensions in Turkey-US relations will continue.
Positive Development Scenario: If the US takes Turkey's security concerns into account (for example, limiting its support for the YPG), relations could improve.
2. Relations with Russia
Astana Process: Although cooperation between Turkey and Russia has played an important role in containing the conflict in Syria, competition and cooperation may coexist due to the situation in restricted areas
Seeking a New Balance: Turkey's energy and defense cooperation with Russia could increase tensions with the West.
Russia's isolation: The actual situation created by the Ukraine war has led to Russia's isolation in the world, and Turkey is therefore an inevitable point of cooperation and contact for Russia. Turkey is therefore in a position to get some concessions from Russia in Syria.
3. Relations with Iran
Competition and Cooperation: Iran, as one of the biggest supporters of the Assad regime, may want to limit Turkey's influence in the region. However, both countries can cooperate on the fight against the PKK and regional stability.
4. Relations with Arab Countries
Seeking a Political Solution Turkey can reshape its relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt to contribute to the resolution of the Syrian crisis. The Israeli massacres and the de facto situation in the Palestinian axis have led to developments in developing common policies with Arab countries and Turkey.
5. Relations with the European Union
Refugee Issue Turkey's stance on Syrian refugees will remain a key issue in its relations with the EU. If Syria stabilizes, opportunities for cooperation with the EU may increase. In addition, the energy crisis in the EU region has made Turkey a key country and brought about a softening in the EU's uncompromising stance that it has maintained for years. It is clear that this will continue in Turkey's favor.

Next article Conclusion and Recommendations

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Conclusion and Recommendations

Developments on Turkey's southern borders represent a multidimensional problematic shaped by historical legacy, geopolitical dynamics, conflicts of interest among regional actors and interventions by international powers. The chaotic environment created by the Syrian civil war and its effects on Turkey are not only security-oriented, but also threaten diplomacy, economic resources and social cohesion. The steps Turkey has taken in this process have been shaped by proactive security policies, cross-border operations and regional cooperation efforts. However, the success of these steps should be supported by comprehensive and sustainable policies, not just military interventions.

First of all, Turkey has made significant gains in weakening the power of terrorist organizations and ensuring border security through cross-border operations. Operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring have greatly reduced instability along the border and supported efforts to create safe zones for refugees. However, the long-term impact of these operations will depend not only on military successes, but also on maintaining the demographic balance in the region, infrastructure investments and policies sensitive to the needs of the local population.

The attitudes of regional actors, especially Syria, Iraq, Iran and Kurdish groups, narrow Turkey's strategic room for maneuver. While establishing balanced relations with these actors, Turkey should put its own interests and security concerns at the center. In particular, the US support for the YPG and Russia's influence over the Assad regime force Turkey to pursue a delicate balancing policy between diplomacy and military options. In this context, it is important for Turkey to play an active role in multilateral platforms such as the Astana Process and support the search for international solutions.

While Kurdish groups in the region are trying to make political and military gains with the support of international powers, this situation poses a serious security and diplomatic challenge for Turkey. Turkey should develop a multi-pronged strategy to manage this situation. While military measures should be taken, international support should be limited through diplomatic initiatives and a positive relationship should be established with the Kurdish people in the region. This will both reduce the influence of terrorist organizations and protect Turkey's strategic interests in the region.

The strategies of the US and Russia in Syria and Iraq directly affect Turkey's security, diplomacy, and military theater of action on its southern border. In trying to protect its national interests amidst the policies of these powers, Turkey pursues a policy of balance through both cross-border operations and diplomatic initiatives. However, this strategy requires great sensitivity and a multifaceted approach; otherwise, Turkey may face greater pressures both regionally and internationally.

The uncertainty over the future of Syria will continue to directly affect Turkey's domestic and foreign policies. A scenario of regime weakening or a collapsed state could expose Turkey to larger waves of migration and threats from radical groups. Therefore, Turkey should take a leading role to increase stability in its border regions, facilitate the voluntary return of refugees and strengthen regional cooperation.

Finally, strengthening Turkey's relations with its own Kurdish citizens would have a positive impact on Kurdish groups in the region. Egalitarian and inclusive policies can be a critical tool in breaking the influence of terrorist organizations. Internationally, Turkey should continue to effectively defend its counterterrorism strategies and legitimate security concerns.

Solving the problems on Turkey's southern border is possible through the integrated use of military, diplomatic and economic instruments. In the long term, it is essential to develop a comprehensive strategy for peace and stability in the region. In this process, it is critical for Turkey to maintain its regional leadership role in order to protect its national interests and contribute to regional stability.

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