Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

 

The main purpose of this series of articles is to provide a background for understanding the developments on Turkey's southern borders and then to analyze their possible effects on the region.

With this introduction, the series, which will consist of 7 articles in total, has been presented to you in a historical and logical order. I firmly believe that it will constitute a very serious information infrastructure for our readers interested in regional politics.

Happy reading...

Article Sequence

1. Root Causes of Developments (this article!)

2. Threats to National Security

3. The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

4. Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

5. Situation of Kurdish Groups and Management Strategies

6. The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

Main Causes of Developments

Recent developments on Turkey's southern border are shaped by a combination of historical, geopolitical, ethnic and economic factors. These problems have a complex structure that bears the influence of both regional and global powers. The main reasons for these developments are analyzed below:
1. Historical and Geopolitical Factors
a. Legacy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement: The partition of the Ottoman territories after World War I led to borders being drawn without taking into account local social realities.This laid the foundation for the ethnic, religious and sectarian conflicts that still persist on the Turkey-Syria-Iraq axis.
b. The Kurdish Question: The concentration of the Kurdish population on Turkey's southern border has been exploited by terrorist organizations and separatist movements in the region.Turkey's cross-border operations are aimed at eliminating this threat.
c. Syrian Civil War The war that started in 2011 led to the de facto disintegration of Syria and Turkey's direct involvement for border security. The support of organizations that directly support terrorism, such as the PYD/YPG, by global powers such as the United States has created more serious security problems on Turkey's southern border.
2. Power Imbalance and Actors' Interests
a. Regional Power Struggle:
I. Turkey: Turkey wants to eliminate the terrorist threat on its southern border and create safe zones for Syrian refugees.
II. Iran: It wants to maintain its Shiite expansionism in the region and its influence over the Syrian regime
III. Russia and the United States:Both countries use Syria as a chessboard to protect their energy routes and strategic influence over the Middle East.
b. Presence of Terrorist Organizations: The presence of the PYD/YPG, an extension of the PKK, in northern Syria directly threatens Turkey's national security.
3. Economic and Energy Policies
a. Energy Corridors: Turkey's southern border is located at a strategic point for the transportation of Middle Eastern energy resources to Europe.Instability in northern Syria jeopardizes the security of these energy lines.
b. Displaced Population and Migration Problem: The Syrian Civil War has led to the displacement of millions of people. Turkey is hosting around 4 million Syrian refugees, posing economic and social challenges.
4. Ethnic and Sectarian Dynamics
a. Ethnic Segregation:The intermingling of Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen and other ethnic groups on both sides of the border is a constant source of tension.
b. Sectarian Divide: The Sunni-Shiite rivalry is deepening conflicts along Turkey's southern border. Iran and Hezbollah use this situation to strengthen the Shiite axis.
5. Intervention of Global Powers
a. US Policy:The US supported the YPG under the pretext of fighting Daesh, which led to tense relations with Turkey.
b. Russia's Strategy: Russia aims to increase its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean by siding with the Syrian regime. Despite occasional cooperation between Turkey and Russia, this alliance is fragile.
6. Turkey's Policies
a. Cross-Border Operations:Turkey has intervened in operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring to ensure border security and minimize the terrorist threat posed by organizations such as PYD/YPG.
b. Safe Zone Plan: Turkey wants to create a safe zone in northern Syria to ensure the return of Syrian refugees and balance the demographic structure.

Next article Threats to National Security

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Threats to National Security

Developments on Turkey's southern border pose multidimensional and serious threats to national security. These threats have both direct effects in the short term and have elements that challenge Turkey's regional and global position in the long term. These threats are discussed in detail below:
1. Terror Threat
PKK/YPG/PYD Presence: Turkey views the YPG and PYD as the PKK's extension in Syria.YPG-controlled areas in northern Syria have become the center of terrorist attacks and logistics lines against Turkey.
a. Border Security:Rocket attacks and terrorist infiltration into Turkey's border areas threaten the security of the civilian population.
b. Terrorist Records: The growing instability in Turkey's south allows terrorist organizations more room for maneuver.
2. Regional Separatism and Ethnic Tensions
a. Kurdish Separatism: The exploitation of the Kurdish population on Turkey's southern border by the PYD/YPG and other separatist elements poses a threat to national unity.A PYD/YPG-backed "autonomous structure" or "state" initiative could have a domino effect along Turkey's borders.
b. Demographic Manipulation: The PYD/YPG's efforts to change the demographic structure in northern Syria weaken Turkmen and Arab communities and fuel regional separatism.
3. Refugee Crisis
a. Economic and Social Impacts: Turkey is hosting around 4 million refugees (unofficial figures put the number at 10 million!) fleeing the Syrian civil war.This leads to strained economic resources and social tensions.
b. Difficulty of Returns: Despite efforts to establish safe zones, instability in Syria makes it difficult for refugees to return. This affects Turkey's internal dynamics in the long run.
4. Energy Security
Threat to Energy Corridors: Turkey's southern border is a transit point for energy lines from the Middle East to Europe. Instability in the region could jeopardize the security of energy projects and negatively affect Turkey's energy supply security.
5. International Power Struggles
a. US Support for the YPG: The US arms and logistical support to the YPG is causing a serious crisis of confidence in Turkey's alliance relations.This situation forces Turkey to question the actions of its strategic allies and therefore to pursue a more aggressive defense policy.
b. Balances with Russia: Russia's backing of the Assad regime and its increased military presence in Syria narrows Turkey's room for maneuver. At the same time, it causes periodic tensions in Turkey-Russia relations.
6. Religious and Sectarian Conflicts
a. Sectarian Tensions: Conflicts on the Shiite-Sunni axis on Turkey's southern border have led Iran to increase its influence in the region.This carries the risk of transferring regional sectarian tensions to Turkey.
b. Presence of Radical Groups: Radical groups such as DAESH continue to operate in the border regions. The risk of attacks by these groups against Turkey is still present.
7. Border Security and Sovereignty Issues
a. Physical Security Threats:Instability along the border poses a direct threat to Turkey's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
b. Smuggling and Crime Networks: Gaps in the region lead to an increase in illegal activities such as human trafficking, arms trade and drug trafficking.
8. International Pressures and Diplomatic Risks
a. Policies of Western Countries: Western countries' support for anti-Turkey terrorist organizations is closely monitored by Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey's cross-border operations against groups supported by Western countries in accordance with international rules of engagement are unfairly criticized by Western countries.While this situation puts Turkey at risk of diplomatic isolation in the international arena, Turkey does not back down on this issue in line with its legal rights.
b. Economic Sanctions: Turkey's military activities in the region may be met with threats of sanctions by some countries. This may affect economic stability.
Conclusion: Developments on Turkey's southern border pose multidimensional threats to both national security and regional stability. In response to these threats, Turkey has developed strategies such as cross-border operations, the creation of safe zones and the effective use of international diplomacy. However, the long-term success of these strategies depends on eliminating instability in the region and maintaining the balance between international powers.
The strategies of global powers such as the US and Russia in Syria and Iraq directly affect Turkey due to conflicts of interest and power struggles in the region. These impacts are multifaceted, including security, diplomacy, economic and military policies. Below, the effects of these powers' strategies on Turkey are discussed in detail:
1. US Strategies and Their Impact on Turkey
a. US Strategy in the Region
Cooperation with YPG/PYD The US has cooperated militarily with the YPG/PYD in northern Syria under the pretext of fighting DAESH. This cooperation includes arming and politically supporting the YPG while ignoring Turkey's security concerns.
Containing Iran: The US supports Kurdish groups and some of its Arab allies in the region to limit Iran's expanding influence through Syria and Iraq.
Israel's Security:In order to ensure Israel's security, the US is taking measures against Iran and trying to shift the balance of power in Syria in its favor.
b. Impact on Turkey
PKK/YPG Problem The weapons provided by the US to the YPG have increased the terrorist threat on Turkey's southern border. The YPG's organic ties with the PKK cause Turkey to view this cooperation as a direct national security threat. Turkey's trust in the US has been shaken and NATO alliance relations have been strained.
Cross-Border Operations: The US military presence in Syria and its support for the YPG has complicated Turkey's operations and hampered efforts to establish a "safe zone" in northern Syria.
Economic and Diplomatic Pressures: The US has criticized Turkey's operations, imposed various economic sanctions and exerted diplomatic pressure against Turkey.
NATO Relations: The US YPG policy has caused Turkey to reconsider its position within NATO and pushed Turkey to question its alliance relations.
2. Russia's Strategies and Their Impact on Turkey
a. Russia's Strategy in the Region
Supporting the Assad Regime: With its military presence in Syria, Russia has ensured the survival of the Assad regime and turned Syria into a strategic sphere of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Rivalry with the United States: Russia plays an active role in Syria to limit the influence of the US in the region and to have a greater say in the global balance of power.
Cooperation and Competition with TurkeyWhile Russia is trying to weaken the Western alliance by cooperating with Turkey, it displays a competitive attitude towards Turkey on some issues in Syria.
b. Impact on Turkey
Relations with the Assad Regime Russia supports a direct dialogue between Turkey and the Assad regime, but despite Turkey's attempts, the Assad regime refrains from engaging in dialogue. Russia's military presence in Syria limits the room for maneuver for Turkey's cross-border operations.
Astana Process: Turkey, together with Russia and Iran, continues to search for a solution in Syria within the framework of the Astana Process However, Russia's support for the Assad regime in this process makes it difficult for Turkey to achieve its goals.
Idlib Crisis: Russia's military operations in Idlib and its attacks against groups supported by Turkey have created tension between the two countries. This situation increased Turkey's responsibility to defend its observation posts in Idlib, the massacres committed by the regime against its own people resulted in the people of the region seeking refuge in Turkey, Turkey's humanitarian attitude and assistance to the people of the region led to a great sympathy for Turkey and an inevitable hatred against the regime, and eventually the Assad regime completely lost control in this region.
Energy and Economic Relations: Turkey's cooperation with Russia in the fields of energy (such as TurkStream) and defense (S-400 systems), while creating problems in relations with the West, has increased Russia's influence over Turkey.
3. Conflict Points of Global Powers
US-Russia Rivalry: The US and Russia's conflict of interest in Syria forces Turkey to pursue a policy of balance between the two powers. On the one hand, Turkey maintains its relations with the US as a NATO ally, while on the other hand, it tries to protect its own interests by cooperating with Russia. This situation complicates Turkey's foreign policy.
Turkey's Strategic Position: Due to Turkey's geopolitical position, the US and Russia want to include Ankara in their strategies. Turkey tries to develop an independent policy by taking advantage of the competition between these two powers. However, this situation occasionally leads to pressures and crises.
4. Turkey's Reactions and Strategies
Military Operations: Through cross-border operations, Turkey tries both to eliminate the YPG threat supported by the US and to balance the consequences of Russia's support for the Assad regime.
Balance Policy: Turkey pursues a policy of balance between the US and Russia, maintaining relations with both powers but acting independently to protect its national interests.
Multilateral Diplomacy: Turkey plays an active role in platforms such as the Astana Process and the Geneva Talks, simultaneously negotiating with both Russia and the United States.
Alliance Seeking: The US support for the YPG and Russia's support for Assad have led Turkey to seek new alliances and regional cooperation. In this context, Turkey has strengthened its relations with Qatar, Azerbaijan and other regional actors.

Next article: The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

The Impact of Regional Actors on Turkey

The policies and attitudes of regional actors (such as Syria, Iraq and Iran) directly affect Turkey's strategies and policies on its southern border. Relations between these actors are highly complex due to historical tensions, ethno-religious structures and regional conflicts of interest. Below, the effects of these countries' attitudes on Turkey's policies are analyzed in detail:
1. Syria's Attitude
a. Assad Regime and Turkey
I. Hostility and Distrust: Since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, relations between Turkey and the Assad regime have been completely severed. While Turkey supports the opposition, the regime sees Turkey as an enemy.
II. Indirect Support to PKK/YPG: As a strategy against Turkey, the Assad regime occasionally engages in tactical cooperation with the YPG/PYD. This increases the terrorist threat on Turkey's southern border and reduces Turkey's faith in the Syrian government.
III. Turkey's Safe Zone Policy: Based on the Adana Memorandum signed with the Syrian government on October 20, 1998, Turkey has been conducting military operations against terrorist movements in the region that pose a threat to Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey's efforts to create a safe zone in northern Syria are seen as a violation of sovereignty by the Assad regime. This escalates tensions between the two countries.However, the dynamics of this zone are based on the above-mentioned mutual agreement between the two countries.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
Turkey's military operations in Syria have to take into account not only the YPG/PKK threat, but also the possible attacks of the Assad regime. Agreements with the regime's allies Russia and Iran limit Turkey's room for maneuver.
2. Iraq's Position
a. Central Government and Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)
I. PKK Presence in Iraq: The PKK is based in the Qandil Mountains and Sinjar region in northern Iraq. The central government's weakness in dealing with this organization leads to Turkey's cross-border operations.
II. The KRG's Dilemma: Although the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is uncomfortable with the PKK's presence in the region, it pursues an indirect policy of balancing with this organization through Kurdish nationalism.This complicates Turkey-IKBY relations from time to time.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
Turkey has been targeting the PKK's presence in northern Iraq through Claw-Kilit and similar operations. These operations are partially supported by the Iraqi government. Turkey aims to weaken PKK influence in the region by strengthening its economic relations with the KRG. However, Turkey's military operations in northern Iraq are generally shaped within the framework of international law, such as the right to self-defense and the fight against terrorism.If we take a look at this framework;
I. Article 51 of the UN Charter (Right to Self-Defense): Turkey exercises its right to self-defense to ensure its national security in the event of attacks on Turkish territory by terrorist organizations such as the PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan) in northern Iraq. Article 51 of the UN Charter gives a country the right to take military action to ensure its own security in the event of an armed attack. Turkey seeks to protect itself against terrorist attacks by the PKK. Turkey's human losses due to PKK terrorism are around 40,000, while its economic losses due to PKK terrorism are estimated at 2 billion dollars in total, including indirect losses.
II. Iraq's Consent and Cooperation: Turkey carries out all of its operations in communication with both the central Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional administrations and carries out these operations meticulously within the scope of the fight against terrorism, provided that these operations do not harm the territorial integrity of Iraq.
III. International Counter-Terrorism: Many international agreements, especially UN resolutions on counterterrorism, allow countries to fight terrorism beyond their borders. Turkey justifies such operations as part of its counterterrorism strategy, noting that the activities of the PKK and other terrorist groups in the region threaten global security.
IV. International Human Rights and Security Treaties: Turkey's military operations are also a reaction to instability and human rights violations in the region. Turkey acts with the thesis that conflicts in neighboring countries may pose a threat to its national security and justifies these theses on the basis of every operation it conducts and declares them in international fora.
3. Iran's Position
a. Shiite Crescent and Regional Rivalry
I. Shiite Expansionism Iran aims to create a "Shiite Crescent" by supporting Shiite groups in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Turkey's Sunni-dominated policies are seen as a factor hindering Iran's plans.
II. Tactical Cooperation with PKK/PYD: Iran uses the PKK and YPG as a counterweight against Turkey from time to time.It has indirect contacts with these organizations, especially in Syria and Iraq.
b. Impact on Turkey's Policies
The regional rivalry between Turkey and Iran makes Turkey's policies on its southern border more careful and multifaceted
Iranian-backed militia groups complicate Turkey's operations and pose a new threat on the Syria-Iraq line.
4. Impact of Regional Conflicts
a. Sectarian Wars: Shia-Sunni tensions on Turkey's southern border, fueled by Iran, are one of the main causes of instability in the region.Turkey's efforts to strengthen its relations with Sunni allies (e.g. Qatar and Saudi Arabia) have drawn the ire of Iran and the Assad regime.
b. The Kurdish Issue The Kurdish issue, which is a common denominator between Iraq, Syria and Turkey, is a factor that constantly affects relations between these countries. The support or suppression of Kurdish groups is shaped according to the interests of each actor.
5. General Effects on Turkey's Policies
a. Shaping Cross-Border Operations: Turkey's military operations in Iraq and Syria take into account the sovereignty sensitivities of these countries and Iran's influence.Shiite militia groups backed by Iran and the Syrian regime limit the scope of Turkey's operations.
b. Diplomatic Balances While Turkey cooperates with Russia and Iran on platforms such as the Astana Process, it is often forced to act alone due to the different interests of these countries. Security cooperation efforts with the Iraqi central government yield limited results.Therefore, Turkey uses military intervention as a "forced last resort".
c. Economic Relations Turkey is trying to increase its economic influence in the region through energy cooperation with the KRG. However, Iran and the Iraqi central government find such cooperation against their interests.

Next article: Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Turkey's Cross-Border Operations

Turkey's cross-border operations are a proactive defense policy against security threats along its southern border. These operations are carried out both to eliminate short-term security threats and to achieve long-term strategic objectives. Turkey's role in this process and the impact of cross-border operations can be evaluated under the following headings:
1. Eliminating Security Threats
a. Targeting Terrorist Organizations
Weakening the PKK and YPG: Through cross-border operations, Turkey has targeted PKK's bases in areas such as Qandil, Gara and Sinjar in Iraq and YPG's areas of control in northern Syria. These operations have severely limited the organizations' mobility.
Combating DAESH:Turkey, especially during Operation Euphrates Shield, has cleared DAESH from its border areas and prevented this threat from infiltrating into Turkey.
b. Ensuring Border Security
Operations have cut the transit routes of terrorist organizations on Turkey's southern border and made the border line more secure. This has increased the security of the civilian population and enabled the return of those living in the border areas.
2. Strategic Objectives
a. Establishing a Safe Zone
Turkey aimed to establish safe zones in northern Syria through operations such as Peace Spring, Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield.These zones aim both to ensure border security and to enable the return of Syrian refugees.
b. Maintaining Demographic Balance
The demographic changes caused by the PYD/YPG in northern Syria by driving Turkmen and Arab populations out of the region have been another target of Turkey's operations. Through these operations, Turkey aims to protect the demographic structure of the region and ensure that ethnic groups in the region live in balance.
3. Regional and Global Balances
a. Relations with the United States and Russia
Turkey's cross-border operations have created an area of direct conflict with the US support for the YPG This has led to tensions in Turkey's relations with the United States, which Turkey considers unworthy of an alliance.
Despite the cooperation with Russia in some areas in Syria, Moscow's support for the Assad regime has limited Turkey's room for maneuver at times.With the operations, Turkey has shown that it can act independently in this balance of power.
b. Iran and the Syrian Regime
The operations have limited Iran's influence in the region and weakened the Syrian regime's sovereignty claims on Turkey's southern border However, it also led to the formation of some regional alliances against Turkey.
4. Domestic Politics and Public Support
a. National Unity and Support
Turkey's cross-border operations have received a great deal of public support The operations are perceived as a policy that prioritizes the country's national security.However, the cost of the operations and international reactions have sometimes been criticized in domestic politics.
b. Seeking a Solution to the Refugee Crisis
Turkey has tried to prepare the ground for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country through the operations. This policy is also an attempt to respond to the economic and social concerns of the public.
5. Economic and Diplomatic Costs
a. Economic Cost
Cross-border operations have brought a significant military and economic cost.However, this cost is defended as a strategy to reduce security threats in the long run and prevent greater damage.
b. International Reactions
The operations have been criticized by many international actors, especially Western countries. The US and European countries characterized the operations as "ethnic cleansing" and "demographic engineering". On the other hand, Turkey has repeatedly asserted that the operations were carried out within the framework of international law and based on the right to self-defense.
6. Successes and Challenges of the Operations
a. Successes
* Stopping infiltrations and terrorist attacks from the region into Turkish territory
* Limiting the PKK/YPG's logistical and mobility capabilities
* Creating safe zones and increasing border security
* Preparing the infrastructure for the return of refugees
b.Challenges
* Operations create a risk of conflict with regional actors and global powers
* YPG's potential to regain power with international support
* Operations take time to translate into long-term stability and peace
* Ancient expectations of countries such as Israel over the region

Next article: The Situation and Management Strategies of Kurdish Groups

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Situation of Kurdish Groups and Management Strategies

Developments in the region have had significant political, military and social impacts on Kurdish groups. The support of these groups by regional and international actors has become an important issue in Turkey's national security and foreign policy. Below, the effects of the developments on Kurdish groups and Turkey's strategies to manage this situation are analyzed:
1. The Effects of Regional Developments on Kurdish Groups
a. Syrian Kurds (PYD/YPG and SDF)
US Support and Empowerment: The US support for the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has increased its military power and political legitimacy. Semi-autonomous administrations were established in the regions controlled by the YPG, which posed a serious threat to Turkey's border security. Both groups implicitly support the PKK.
Cooperation with Russia Russia has at times tried to put pressure on Turkey by cooperating with the YPG. This has expanded the YPG's political room for maneuver in the region.
Demographic Change:The YPG's displacement of Turkmen and Arab populations in the areas under its control through threats and force has changed the demographic structure, which has increased Turkey's concerns.
b. Iraqi Kurds (KDP and PUK)
Independence Referendum and its Results: The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) became isolated in the international arena with its independence referendum in 2017. This process allowed Turkey to increase its economic and political influence over the KRG.
PKK Presence: The PKK has attempted to gain strength in the Qandil and Sinjar regions in northern Iraq.However, this has created tensions between the KRG administration and the PKK and turned into a ground to support Turkey's cross-border operations.
c. Iranian Kurds
Iran's Repression: Iran has implemented repressive policies against its own Kurdish population, which has led some of the Kurdish groups in the region to cooperate with Turkey
Kurdish Movements Across Borders: In its relations with Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq, Iran has tried to balance Turkey's influence in the region.
2. Turkey's Strategies to Manage the Situation
A. Diplomatic and Military Measures
Cross-Border Operations: Through operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Peace Spring and Claw Series, Turkey has weakened the YPG's presence along the border and cut the PKK's logistical lines. These operations have increased Turkey's security by shrinking the areas controlled by Kurdish groups.
Cooperation with Local Groups By cooperating with Arab and Turkmen groups in northern Syria, Turkey has created a balance against the YPG.
Cooperation with the KRG Turkey has sought to limit the PKK's influence in Iraq by strengthening its economic and political relations with the KRG. This cooperation has also been reinforced through energy projects (e.g. oil trade).
B. Policies Towards the Kurdish People
Preventing Ethnic Disintegration: Turkey has been developing policies that separate the Kurdish people in the region from terrorist organizations and do not antagonize them against Turkey. In this context, the aim is to strengthen economic and social ties with the Kurdish population in the region and steps are being taken in this direction.
Economic Development: Implementing infrastructure projects and economic development plans in the safe zones created in northern Syria can increase the Kurdish population's trust in Turkey.
C. International Relations and Lobbies
Negotiations with the US Turkey has been reminding the US to stop its support to the YPG and has been negotiating on the basis of NATO alliance.
Balanced Relations with Russia Aware of the need to increase areas of cooperation with Russia in order to limit Russia's support for the Assad regime and the YPG, Turkey is taking decisive steps in this regard.
International Law and Legitimacy: Turkey should continue to justify its cross-border operations within the framework of international law to avoid criticism from the West.
D. Long-Term Solutions
Regional Cooperation Turkey can cooperate with Iraq and Iran to develop a common policy against the regional Kurdish groups' efforts for independence or autonomy.
Isolation of Terrorist Organizations To prevent organizations such as the PKK and YPG from receiving international support, Turkey should conduct diplomatic campaigns highlighting the terrorist links of these groups.
Resolving the Kurdish Question: Turkey's development of inclusive and equitable policies towards its own Kurdish citizens could allow it to take a stronger stance in dealing with regional Kurdish groups.

Next article: The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

The Future of Syria and its Reflections on Turkey

a. Predictions for the Future of Syria: The future of Syria remains uncertain depending on both regional and international dynamics. However, in light of the current situation and trends, several scenarios stand out:
1. Continuation of the Current Situation (Frozen Conflict)
Syria may evolve into a "frozen conflict" scenario in which the de facto division in the north, center and south continues and low intensity conflicts continue.
YPG/SDF control of the north may continue, albeit limited by Turkey's cross-border operations. The sympathy and satisfaction of the people of the region based on Turkey will cause this situation to change rapidly.
In the center, the Assad regime may remain in power with the support of Russia and Iran, but economic difficulties may weaken its authority. The steady loss of controlled territory across Syria is weakening the Assad regime and causing it to lose supporters, which could ultimately result in the loss of Russian and Iranian support.
Local resistance to the regime in areas such as Daraa in the south and instability in areas close to the Jordanian border may continue.
Implications for Turkey: The Assad regime's ever-decreasing dominance over Syrian territory will cause Turkey's security concerns to persist. In particular, the continued presence of the YPG with US support could push Turkey to conduct more cross-border operations. The possibility of refugees becoming permanent could strain Turkey's socioeconomic and political balances and lead Turkey to take countermeasures.
2. Strengthening the Assad Regime
With the support of Iran and Russia, the regime may try to regain control over large parts of the country However, this may meet with limited success due to the economic/military costs, the disintegration of the status quo and the local population's hatred of the Assad regime.
Gradual recognition of the regime by the international community (especially Arab countries) could increase Assad's legitimacy. Of course, harsh sanctions against the Arabs, the Kurdish groups playing with the demographic structure in support of the regime and the Iranian-backed Shiite groups gaining power will have to be prevented.
Impact on Turkey: The strengthening of the Assad regime may lead Turkey to reassess its relations with the opposition in Syria. In this case, the need for direct dialog with the regime may arise. Given the Assad regime's long-standing refusal to engage in dialogue, this may strengthen Turkey's position in the international community.
3. A Solution with the Cooperation of Regional and International Actors (Low Probability)
If the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and other actors agree on a joint solution, Syria's reunification and transition to a federal structure could be on the agenda Although this scenario would provide some autonomy to the YPG/SDF and a political solution between the opposition and the regime, this is a red line for Turkey and will not be accepted. This situation may result in Turkey's actualization of the borders of Misak-ı Milli.
Impact on Turkey: Although this scenario may have positive effects for Turkey as it may facilitate the return of refugees, it is the scenario with the most complex consequences.
4. A New Civil Conflict or State Collapse
In the event of regime weakening or a decline in international support, Syria could become a completely collapsed state This scenario could lead to a resurgence of regional factions. This could result in Turkey's actualization of the borders of Misak-ı Milli.
Impact on Turkey: Security risks on the southern border would increase and Turkey could face a larger migration wave. On the other hand, the cross-border influence of radical groups could pose a serious threat to Turkey's internal security.Turkey may take sanctions with decisive consequences.
b. Possible Changes in Turkey's Relations with its Allies in the Region The future of Syria may reshape Turkey's relations with its regional allies. These dynamics can be summarized as follows:
1. Relations with the United States
YPG Support As long as US support for the YPG continues, tensions in Turkey-US relations will continue.
Positive Development Scenario: If the US takes Turkey's security concerns into account (for example, limiting its support for the YPG), relations could improve.
2. Relations with Russia
Astana Process: Although cooperation between Turkey and Russia has played an important role in containing the conflict in Syria, competition and cooperation may coexist due to the situation in restricted areas
Seeking a New Balance: Turkey's energy and defense cooperation with Russia could increase tensions with the West.
Russia's isolation: The actual situation created by the Ukraine war has led to Russia's isolation in the world, and Turkey is therefore an inevitable point of cooperation and contact for Russia. Turkey is therefore in a position to get some concessions from Russia in Syria.
3. Relations with Iran
Competition and Cooperation: Iran, as one of the biggest supporters of the Assad regime, may want to limit Turkey's influence in the region. However, both countries can cooperate on the fight against the PKK and regional stability.
4. Relations with Arab Countries
Seeking a Political Solution Turkey can reshape its relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt to contribute to the resolution of the Syrian crisis. The Israeli massacres and the de facto situation in the Palestinian axis have led to developments in developing common policies with Arab countries and Turkey.
5. Relations with the European Union
Refugee Issue Turkey's stance on Syrian refugees will remain a key issue in its relations with the EU. If Syria stabilizes, opportunities for cooperation with the EU may increase. In addition, the energy crisis in the EU region has made Turkey a key country and brought about a softening in the EU's uncompromising stance that it has maintained for years. It is clear that this will continue in Turkey's favor.

Next article Conclusion and Recommendations

Developments and Impacts on Turkey's Southern Borders

Conclusion and Recommendations

Developments on Turkey's southern borders represent a multidimensional problematic shaped by historical legacy, geopolitical dynamics, conflicts of interest among regional actors and interventions by international powers. The chaotic environment created by the Syrian civil war and its effects on Turkey are not only security-oriented, but also threaten diplomacy, economic resources and social cohesion. The steps Turkey has taken in this process have been shaped by proactive security policies, cross-border operations and regional cooperation efforts. However, the success of these steps should be supported by comprehensive and sustainable policies, not just military interventions.

First of all, Turkey has made significant gains in weakening the power of terrorist organizations and ensuring border security through cross-border operations. Operations such as Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring have greatly reduced instability along the border and supported efforts to create safe zones for refugees. However, the long-term impact of these operations will depend not only on military successes, but also on maintaining the demographic balance in the region, infrastructure investments and policies sensitive to the needs of the local population.

The attitudes of regional actors, especially Syria, Iraq, Iran and Kurdish groups, narrow Turkey's strategic room for maneuver. While establishing balanced relations with these actors, Turkey should put its own interests and security concerns at the center. In particular, the US support for the YPG and Russia's influence over the Assad regime force Turkey to pursue a delicate balancing policy between diplomacy and military options. In this context, it is important for Turkey to play an active role in multilateral platforms such as the Astana Process and support the search for international solutions.

While Kurdish groups in the region are trying to make political and military gains with the support of international powers, this situation poses a serious security and diplomatic challenge for Turkey. Turkey should develop a multi-pronged strategy to manage this situation. While military measures should be taken, international support should be limited through diplomatic initiatives and a positive relationship should be established with the Kurdish people in the region. This will both reduce the influence of terrorist organizations and protect Turkey's strategic interests in the region.

The strategies of the US and Russia in Syria and Iraq directly affect Turkey's security, diplomacy, and military theater of action on its southern border. In trying to protect its national interests amidst the policies of these powers, Turkey pursues a policy of balance through both cross-border operations and diplomatic initiatives. However, this strategy requires great sensitivity and a multifaceted approach; otherwise, Turkey may face greater pressures both regionally and internationally.

The uncertainty over the future of Syria will continue to directly affect Turkey's domestic and foreign policies. A scenario of regime weakening or a collapsed state could expose Turkey to larger waves of migration and threats from radical groups. Therefore, Turkey should take a leading role to increase stability in its border regions, facilitate the voluntary return of refugees and strengthen regional cooperation.

Finally, strengthening Turkey's relations with its own Kurdish citizens would have a positive impact on Kurdish groups in the region. Egalitarian and inclusive policies can be a critical tool in breaking the influence of terrorist organizations. Internationally, Turkey should continue to effectively defend its counterterrorism strategies and legitimate security concerns.

Solving the problems on Turkey's southern border is possible through the integrated use of military, diplomatic and economic instruments. In the long term, it is essential to develop a comprehensive strategy for peace and stability in the region. In this process, it is critical for Turkey to maintain its regional leadership role in order to protect its national interests and contribute to regional stability.

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The Global Collapse of the Dollar, The End of the American Empire, the Rise of BRICS, and Turkey's New Foreign Policy Strategies

Paul Kennedy's book "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers", published in 1987, attracted my attention at the time. For those of you who have not read it, let me summarize very briefly: Paul Kennedy's book covers a wide period of time, from the Habsburg Empire in western Europe to the United States today and the recently disintegrated Soviet Union, in which he comprehensively examines how the economic and military power of the great powers in world history developed and ultimately collapsed. Kennedy examines in detail the dynamics of the economic and military capacity of great powers and how these dynamics led to major geopolitical shifts. The book categorizes world history from the 1500s onwards into five main periods: The Renaissance and the Age of Exploration, the Napoleonic Wars and the Industrial Revolution, the Rise and Fall of the British Empire, Period Between the Two World Wars and the Cold War. In analyzing the economic and military resources, strategies and policies of the great powers during these periods, Kennedy ultimately argues that great powers must constantly balance their economic and military resources, and that powers that fail to do so inevitably collapse. Naturally, it also draws important lessons from history on how modern great powers (e.g. the United States) should prepare for future challenges. In summary, this book helped me understand the historical dynamics of economic and military power and the need for great powers to think strategically to ensure their sustainability. If anyone has not read it yet, I highly recommend it.

In the 20th century, many empires and states collapsed. The Chinese Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Japanese Empire, the Russian Tsardom, Germany and finally Soviet Russia in 1991. Add to this the British Empire, the Portuguese Empire, the French Colonial Empire, the Italian Empire, etc., which were largely dismembered by the decolonization process, and the number of empires and states that collapsed is even greater. In addition to liberation movements, economic instability, political corruption and social inequality were also factors behind the collapse of these empires. A similar scenario is now likely to play out in the United States. The US's unsustainable debts and failing banks, combined with the states' discovery of modern imperialism and the efforts of China, Russia and the BRICS countries to reduce their dependence on the dollar, will cause the US dollar to lose its role as the world's reserve currency. This is the basis of the analysis and resolve we will make in this article.

I should point out that this article is actually quite long and could have been published in 3-4 separate articles. However, in order to make a holistic analysis, I had to gather together topics that have organic ties with each other. Otherwise, both the analysis and the conclusions would have been baseless. Therefore, I ask for some patience from our esteemed readers, but I ask them to read to the end without skipping the topics in order not to disrupt the holistic analysis.

Inflation expectations in the world economy

First of all, it would be useful to take an overview of global economic problems. With the recent turmoil in the US economy, many economists feel the need to warn the public, something that has not been the norm for the last 70 years. Perspectives for the near future reveal that high inflation and global economic uncertainties require investors to develop asset protection strategies.

The current state of the world economy shows that debt levels across the globe have reached an unsustainable level. This is justified if we realize that the total global debt has reached 300 trillion dollars and that many countries have debt levels in relation to GDP above 100%. These high debt levels are the result of low interest rates. Low interest rate policies by central banks lead to excessive borrowing by individuals, but perhaps more importantly by governments. It seems almost inevitable that this will eventually lead to a currency crisis and currency depreciation.

It is clear that the dollar risks losing its status as the global reserve currency, which would have major implications for the US economy. It was already known that the dollar's status as a reserve currency allowed the US to borrow more from other countries, but that this situation was unsustainable. It is clear that a devaluation of the dollar would severely reduce the standard of living in the US, and the consequences for the US would be far more dire than a nuclear attack.

However, we know that the Eurozone is also facing serious economic problems. Debt levels in the euro area are high and it is difficult for the European Central Bank to force governments to reduce budget deficits. This means that the future of the Euro is uncertain and some countries may leave the Euro. This situation seems to have become even more pronounced with the aging European population and rising energy costs as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. This situation in Europe, the closest ally of the US, is also of great concern for the US economy and the dollar.

US economic manipulations and the fake dollar empire

Let us take a brief look at the history of the US dollar becoming the world's reserve currency and, so to speak, establishing hegemony in the world. The US dollar became the world's reserve currency after World War II with the Bretton Woods agreement (more precisely, with US imposition!!!). This system was based on backing the dollar with gold and pegging other currencies to the dollar. In 1971, when the US abruptly abandoned the gold standard, the dollar became the fiat money currency. As is well known, the US dollar is still the most widely used currency in world trade. Especially the fact that oil trade is carried out in dollars has provided the US central bank with incredible advantages.

When we analyze the national debt of countries, the US economy appears to be heading off a cliff. If any other country faced a debt burden of this magnitude, it might have to be described by rating agencies in the last letters of the alphabet. But the world reserve currency, which has been the mainstay of the US economy for years, and the manipulations that have been carried out allow for the continuation of the rampant borrowing without an inflationary spike. But it is now becoming clear that this economic data is misleading and that the recession has already begun. The US government is trying to hide the situation by publishing false economic data. As in the 2008 crisis, for example, they admitted it a year after the recession began. Today, factory orders are falling sharply, which weakens the argument for a strong economy.

The Biden administration is blamed for the mismanagement of the economy. Manipulations such as the correction of employment data prevent the public from understanding the real economic situation. On the other hand, US economists argue that the FED should not raise interest rates despite rising inflation. Instead, they point to the possibility of lowering interest rates and returning to quantitative easing. However, I believe that these policies will deepen economic problems rather than solve them, especially if the developments of recent years are not taken into account.

It should be noted that the record highs in gold prices are related to central banks buying gold instead of dollars. On the other hand, this situation reveals the fact that the world's central banks have lost their confidence in the dollar by buying gold. In addition, the depreciation of the dollar once again triggers the increase in gold prices. This could reduce the effectiveness of US financial sanctions and jeopardize the dollar's place as a reserve currency. But could other countries have noticed what is happening in the US economy? Let's analyze and see...

BRICS countries are looking for alternatives to the dollar's dominance. These countries are trying to reduce their dependence on the dollar by conducting their trade in local currencies. Putin states that the use of the dollar as a foreign policy tool is one of the biggest strategic mistakes made by the US. This situation causes BRICS countries to turn to alternatives such as gold instead of the dollar.

Turning our focus back to the US domestic economy, there are serious problems in the US housing market and economic life in general. High inflation, rising taxes and the cost of living are worsening people's economic situation. Instead of solving these problems, governments are pursuing policies that will worsen them. The FED's interest rate cuts and the return to quantitative easing are likely to further increase inflation and deepen economic problems. The housing market is suffering from low inventory and high prices. It is getting harder to build new homes and existing homeowners do not want to lose their low-interest mortgages. This is keeping house prices high in nominal terms. However, household debt continues to rise and people's economic situation is deteriorating. Unemployment rates appear to be low, but in fact many people are unable to find work or are forced into low-paying jobs out of necessity.

In addition to all this, the global economic recession and rising energy costs, especially in a climate of war, are deeply affecting Japan, the UK, Germany and other countries. Last year, the huge German economy posted a deficit for the first time in many years. It is certain that these countries will face economic difficulties due to the US policies that are fueling the war. The loss of the dollar's dominance as the US reserve currency could change the global economic balance, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and a weakening of US economic and financial power.

One way or another, the role of the US dollar as a reserve currency is in jeopardy and economic problems are deepening. Gold and other alternatives are already replacing the dollar. The BRICS countries and others are taking strategic steps against the dollar's dominance. The US's internal economic problems - high debt, inflation and low unemployment rates - threaten economic stability. In this context, economists say that individuals and businesses within the US need to adopt various strategies to protect themselves against global economic uncertainties, indicating that a massive tsunami wave is about to hit the shore.

But has this situation really been seen by US citizens or are they not aware of it? Let's talk a little bit about how the situation looks like in the US.

Many Americans pretend to be rich, but in fact spend deficit spending, just like the US government, resulting in high credit card debt, buy now, pay later, and so on. Given the US economic situation described above, things are really out of control. Recently, things have been getting worse for the US again after the economic collapse of 1930 and the economic depression is signaling. As the US enters the election year of 2025, it is at an all-time high level of borrowing. As mentioned above, during the Vietnam War, the US economy was in a serious depression and was going through a process similar to today. In 1971, President Nixon severed the link between the US dollar and gold, which meant that the FED could print money for free. Normally, in any other country, the issuance of free money would automatically lead to inflation and the cost of living. But for nearly 50 years the US has been issuing free money when it needs it, and the rest of the world has been grabbing this circulating money and using it in their international trade, especially in the oil trade. The biggest contributor to this situation was of course the US agreement with Saudi Arabia exactly 50 years ago and the introduction of the petrodollar. By forcing the OPEC countries to sell in dollars, the US fueled the world's need for dollars and put its own debts on the backs of the world's states. Thus, the FED could put as much money into circulation as it wanted, and in return, without causing inflation in the country, it would share all the debts with the world. This system has been the main guardian of the US dream for the last 50 years. Of course, this was not the only instrument the US used to spread its debt around the world. The Wall Street bond bubble, followed by the tech stock bubble, followed by the housing bubble, and so on, we poor people of the world have always been deceived, and we have always taken on the debts of the US people. When the countries of the world could not bear this burden in certain periods, they have always put the US debts on the shoulders of the people through devaluation, economic crises and political turmoil. As a result, the US dollar has hegemonized the world as a purely fiat currency with no basis in fact. To illustrate this correctly, the US government can be understood as having a credit card with unlimited spending limits and having others pay the bill, and with fiat currencies, whenever they need money, they print money and get what they need. But now that the governments of the world have woken up to this system, nobody wants to burden their poor people with the debts of the fat US people.

Since the 1980s, states that realized this and started to fight against it have been either revolutionized and ruled by US-controlled governments, or politicians who took a stand against it were assassinated. It is not widely known that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi were among the first leaders who wanted to sell their oil without being dependent on the dollar. Today we don't even remember them. Why, because the American Petrodollar monster swallowed them up, ground them up, destroyed them and spat them out. Similarly, many assassinations in world politics are CIA-related. Even their own US presidents have been implicated. For example, President Kennedy was sacrificed because of the changes he wanted to make in the monetary system. Of course, that's not what our dear media people tell us. Because they are also important players and even defenders of this system.

So what do you do in the face of these antidemocratic fake revolutions or political murders? You are forced to either keep silent or wage war against them with your head on your shoulders. If the people are behind you, you have a chance to do something. But if you have sold-out politicians and bureaucrats or deceived people among your people, you have no chance of holding on. Examples? There are so many, most recently on 15 July 2016, when there was an assassination attempt against President Erdogan in Turkey and a coup d'état to remove the government. But the Turkish people resisted bravely. On Youtube you can still find footage of people standing in front of tanks with their bare hands and being crushed, videos of anti-aircraft bullets being fired from military helicopters at civilians, and videos of F16s attacking cities. Exactly 256 brave Turks were killed for resisting this uprising. Anyway, back to the topic at hand...

These games of the US have come to an end, people are waking up and seeing everything. They have realized that they are not going to get anywhere with political assassinations, artificial revolutions or sanctions on countries around the world. Don't they understand the backlash that all these countries will unite under by weaponizing the dollar? The whole world has realized that the mainstay of dollar hegemony is the petrodollar.

But unfortunately, we often don't learn the most important things in life until we are much further down the road. Or rather, the CIA, the guardian of this system, has prevented us from learning this. Whenever it needed to, the tyrannical US central bank was able to run its economy smoothly by printing money without the risk of the dollar devaluing, and it did so on the backs of the world's governments. But that's it now. The end of the US petrodollar empire is in sight.

What will happen if the US dollar ceases to rule? What will happen to the US economy and with it the American dream that it promised its people? These are the critical questions.

So let's go into a little bit deeper now...

BRICS Countries on the Path to De-Dollarization: A New Era in the Global Economy

BRICS countries are increasing their efforts to reduce their dependence on the US dollar in global trade and finance. This effort gained momentum with the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Ethiopia in BRICS from January 2024. This initiative, called de-dollarization, aims to develop a payment system independent of US financial control. This new system aims to reduce the geopolitical influence of the United States by facilitating international transactions.

The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) aims to increase the capacity of member countries to lend in local currencies, with 30% of its lending in local auctions by 2024. This will reduce dependence on the dollar and mitigate risks associated with exchange rates and US monetary policy. By integrating more economies that can trade in local currencies, the enlarged BRICS, including major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, is increasing its economic power and supporting the de-dollarization agenda.

The de-dollarization efforts of the BRICS represent a concerted effort to create a multipolar global financial system that challenges the hegemony of the US dollar. While the full impact of these measures will take time, de-dollarization marks a significant shift in global economic strategies. China has taken an important step in its dollarization strategy by selling about $50 billion of US bonds. This sale reflects China's long-term goal of diversifying its reserves and reducing its exposure to US financial instruments.

On the other hand, if we consider that the dollar bills in circulation in the world are actually bonds or promissory notes, the return of this money in circulation to the US and the demand for its equivalent would have a nuclear bomb effect on the US economy, which is already in deep trouble. Because, as we have explained above, there is no equivalent to this amount of money in circulation in the US!!! This situation is making the US economic bureaucrats sweat very seriously.

The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China are triggering this strategic shift. Together with the BRICS countries, China is developing an alternative to the SWIFT payment system to facilitate international trade without being tied to the US dollar. Moreover, given the economic sanctions Russia is facing on a global scale, it can be easily understood that this will give a big boost to these developments. Moreover, the BRICS New Development Bank is expanding the capacity of member countries to lend in local currencies. Reduced demand for US bonds will lead to lower bond prices and higher interest rates. This inverse relationship occurs because when bond prices fall, yields or interest rates on those bonds rise to attract new investors. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing across the economy, affecting various types of credit.

The massive debt problems in the US economy, the supply-demand imbalance in the bond market and uncertainties about the future course of interest rates are putting significant pressures on the US economic situation. Household borrowing and rising interest rates are expected to lead to economic tightening. A major risk is that the government will issue a large amount of bonds and there will not be enough investors to buy them.

The de-dollarization efforts of the BRICS are certain to potentially change the global economic balance of power. These efforts, coupled with the fact that the United States has the highest external debt in the world, will have a significant impact on the global economy. These BRICS initiatives could accelerate the transition to a multipolar global financial system and reduce dependence on the dollar. This could lead to a reshaping of global trade and finance and increase the economic power of the BRICS countries.

And what will be the response of the US economy? I don't think there is anyone who believes that they will calmly accept the situation. Also, can the US respond to the biggest uprising ever against it with its huge army? Or has this process already started? It doesn't take a clairvoyant to see that the US needs a war to get out of this cycle, and that they will stir up the world to get it.

The End of the Petro-Dollar Agreement and Its Global Implications

The 75-year petro-dollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States expired on June 9, 2024. This is seen as a harbinger of major changes in the global economy. The petro-dollar system ensured that the US dollar remained the international reserve currency and led to global trade being conducted largely in dollars. The end of this system could lead to the end of the dollar's global economic dominance and a reshaping of world trade.

The petro-dollar system began with the US agreement with Saudi Arabia in the 1970s. In exchange for military protection and economic support to Saudi Arabia, the US ensured that oil sales would only be in dollars. This system helped strengthen the dollar as the global reserve currency and helped the US maintain its economic and political supremacy.

This system gave the US two important advantages: economic stability and financial advantages. The dollar's status as a reserve currency allowed international trade and investment to be conducted in dollars. It also reduced US borrowing costs, making its financial markets liquid and stable.

There are several reasons for the end of the petro-dollar deal. First, Saudi Arabia and other developing countries want to reduce dependence on the dollar and trade in their own currencies. This is a goal that is in line with the efforts of the BRICS countries to create an alternative reserve currency to the dollar.

Second, US global policies and economic sanctions have reduced other countries' reliance on the dollar. China and Russia, in particular, have taken major steps to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and have started to hold gold and other precious metals in their reserves instead of dollars.

If the agreement signed 50 years ago between the US and Saudi Arabia, which allows oil to be bought only in dollars, is not renewed and oil is sold in euros, yuan, gold or even Bitcoin, this could usher in a new era not only for the US and the dollar's dominance but also for the world financial order. Moreover, it would reduce the dollar's role in international trade, which would increase volatility in currency markets. Let's not forget that the depreciation of the dollar would mean higher import costs for the US economy, which would lead to higher inflation, which in the current circumstances would start an unstoppable cycle of collapse.

High inflation leads to higher interest rates and higher borrowing costs. This means higher interest rates on mortgages, car loans, student loans and credit cards. It can also increase pressure on the banking system, leading to more bank failures.

A depreciating dollar reduces US international purchasing power and competitiveness. Travel abroad and the prices of imported goods increase, raising the cost of living for American consumers. In addition, retirement accounts and investment portfolios are negatively affected.

The end of the petro-dollar system will reduce US influence in the Middle East and weaken US global economic dominance, which in turn will reshape the global economic order, reduce the role of the dollar in international trade, and ultimately remove the golden goose of the US economy. So how will the US economy, already under so much pressure, respond? How will the collapse be stopped?

It seems that the environment in which excessive deferred debts across the US suddenly become more difficult to repay could make the US citizenry look back to the Depression of the 1930s.

The Trend Away from the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency,

Alternative Currencies and the Value of the Dollar

Once the countries of the world started to question why they were using the US dollar in global trade and started to understand the realities, they started to look for alternatives to the US dollar. These countries are experimenting with trading using their own currencies and digital currencies. China's launch of the digital yuan can be seen as part of these efforts. With its digital yuan pilot program in Hong Kong, China aims to bypass the dollar in global trade.

In addition, all countries are questioning why they do not trade in their local currencies. With global distrust of the US, the prospect of throwing off the yoke of the dollar is a welcome one. Perhaps they feel the slap in the face of imperialism that they have been waiting for for years.

In conclusion, the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency will lead to major changes in the international financial system. The shift to alternative currencies by countries like China and Russia could devalue the dollar and deepen the US economic problems, which seems inevitable.

BRICS Countries' Efforts to Reduce the Impact of the Dollar

In response to the US weaponizing the dollar's dominance in the global financial system, the BRICS countries are seeking an alternative currency to replace the dollar. These countries are coming together to reduce dependence on the dollar and increase their own economic power. BRICS aims to create alternative trade methods that are not dependent on the dollar and a new reserve currency.

BRICS countries aim to create an alternative currency that is not dependent on the dollar to trade among themselves. In this context, the idea of creating a new reserve currency has come to the fore. This currency could be used in international trade by replacing the dollar and facilitate trade among BRICS countries.

BRICS countries are trying to become independent from the dollar by using their own currencies or valuable commodities such as gold and oil in their trade. This strategy was developed to reduce the effects of US economic sanctions and increase their financial independence.

BRICS countries organize various meetings and summits to ensure greater cooperation and coordination in the international arena. At these summits, common economic policies are developed and strategies to reduce the global influence of the US dollar are discussed.

Central banks can contribute to this transformation by changing their reserve allocation and using alternative currencies. The People's Bank of China is taking several steps to increase the international use of the yuan. The adoption of the yuan as an international reserve currency could weaken the role of the dollar in the global financial system and increase the financial independence of the BRICS countries. The Central Bank of Russia has also diversified part of its reserves into other currencies such as gold and the euro. This strategy is part of Russia's efforts to reduce the influence of the dollar and increase financial stability.

BRICS Digital Currency Announcement

Russia has announced the development of a digital currency for the BRICS countries. While there has been speculation that this new currency will be backed by physical assets such as gold and other commodities, the Kremlin has stated that the currency will be based on blockchain technology and is almost complete.

The BRICS countries are an economic bloc that collectively represents more than 3 billion people, and this size could have significant implications for global trade if a new common currency is adopted.

US Strategic Moves and the Digital Dollar

The US Federal Reserve (FED) is working on a digital dollar, but has not yet taken a definitive step. FED Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the digital dollar could help the US maintain its role in the international financial system. However, China's digital yuan move could give it a huge competitive advantage over the US.

There is no doubt that the developments led by the BRICS countries are pushing countries to conduct world trade in their own currencies or alternative currencies in order to reduce dependence on the US dollar. This strategy is an important step towards building a multipolar economic order that challenges US global financial dominance.

At this point, let's take a look at the economic indicators and try to understand what these developments might affect;

BRICS is a geopolitical and economic bloc of 10 countries representing 45% of the world's population and 37% of world GDP. Its mission is to create a multipolar world order, both politically and economically, against the unjustified pressure of the US, EU, Japan and other Western powers. In this context, the BRICS countries are dissatisfied with the use of the dollar as a weapon and want to oppose this situation.

The US has been a dominant force in the world economy for many years, and this has been supported by its policies of money printing and borrowing. The US debt of more than $34 trillion has remained sustainable thanks to the willingness of the country's creditors around the world to buy it. However, if the BRICS countries decide to work to reduce dollarization, it is possible that these dollars will flow back to the US, potentially triggering a major economic crisis.

BRICS seeks to establish a rival financial system that mirrors the existing Western system. The BRICS New Development Bank is the equivalent of the West's International Monetary Fund (IMF). In addition, alternatives to the SWIFT payment system are being developed, such as the BRICS Pay. The BRICS global reserve currency is also part of this system and is planned to be backed by commodities such as gold and oil. This currency could potentially be blockchain-based, making it a digital central bank currency.

The BRICS countries, especially China, Russia and India, are rapidly increasing their gold reserves. This signals that the new BRICS currency may be backed by gold. In the last 18 months, China has increased its gold reserves, Russia has pegged the ruble to gold and India has increased its gold reserves by 40%. These developments indicate that the BRICS countries fear that the US dollar will fall or be used as a weapon against them.

If the 10 BRICS countries completely de-dollarize their economies, a money supply worth about $8.14 trillion could return to the US, with serious consequences for the US economy, including inflation, debt crisis and potential hyperinflation. Such an event could bring serious political and social instability to the US.

Bitcoin stands out as an interesting variable in this multipolar monetary order. Bitcoin cannot be controlled by any government or group and offers transparency, reliability and independence. Bitcoin is increasingly accepted worldwide as an alternative to fiat currencies and holds promise for the world that awakens to the reality of this monetary savior.

What are the obstacles to these developments?

BRICS countries are discussing the idea of creating a common currency, but there are significant obstacles to this. First of all, the economic and political differences between the countries make it difficult to create a unit like the Euro, and the expansion of BRICS, along with the increase in the number of members, complicates the ability to act collectively. The technical difficulties of creating a common currency and the sovereignty concerns of countries are also major obstacles.

Alternatively, a basket currency similar to the IMF's SDR or blockchain-based payment systems have been proposed. However, both options have their own challenges; for example, with a basket currency, economic imbalances between countries are a political constraint. Blockchain-based systems, on the other hand, are not yet fully developed and there are uncertainties in their implementation.

Criticism of the BRICS in the international system may affect the international acceptance of a common currency or payment system. The international trust-based acceptance of such a unit or system is based on political and economic power.

The BRICS currency will most likely be digital and blockchain-based. It is still unclear whether it will be backed by gold. It aims to be a broadly inclusive currency that can be used not only for intergovernmental transactions but also for trade between individuals. However, the adoption and implementation of this currency may involve challenges due to political and economic differences between member countries. India, in particular, may have to abandon its goal of strengthening its own currency.

On the other hand, the official launch of the digital yuan is seen as China's strategy to counter US sanctions. As it is known, the launch took place in Hong Kong, from where it is planned to spread around the world.

Immediately after this development, US officials expressed their reactions against China's move. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that China would face sanctions if it did not stop its support for Russia. The US has indicated that it may block dollar transactions by Chinese banks, targeting their financial institutions. This creates the need for China to establish an alternative financial system to neutralize US sanctions.

Under a pilot program launched in Hong Kong, digital yuan wallets can be opened at major Chinese banks and used to make direct payments to merchants in mainland China. Major Chinese banks such as Bank of China and ICBC Bank have already integrated this program. This system provides a hedge against US sanctions by making transactions more confidential and difficult to trace.

As the largest trading partner of more than 100 countries worldwide, China is a major economic power. The adoption of the digital yuan could increase China's economic clout and change the dynamics of global trade. As the use of the digital yuan increases, central banks could hold fewer dollars in their reserves, which could further devalue the dollar.

Turkey's Accession to BRICS

Turkey's interest in multipolar world systems such as BRICS+ is growing. The importance of BRICS+ was emphasized during Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to Moscow. The term BRICS+ refers to an expanded structure formed by the possible addition of new members to BRICS. This structure emerged as a reaction against the hegemony of international financial institutions and creditors.

BRICS emerged in 2006 with the contacts of Brazil, Russia, India, India and China at the UN sessions and was officially established in 2009. It was renamed BRICS in 2011 with the accession of South Africa. This grouping emerged as an opposition to the injustices of the global economic and political system and aims to be an alternative to Western-centered international institutions.

BRICS countries complain of under-representation in institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank and of injustices in the international financial system. This has become particularly pronounced in the wake of global economic crises and trade imbalances.

The BRICS+ concept refers to an expanded structure with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia and Iran joining BRICS. Countries like Turkey, located at the intersection of global trade routes, should not be considered in isolation and may seek a more effective representation in the international system. Turkey's participation in BRICS+ could strengthen its foreign policy and economically enable it to take a stronger stance against international financial manipulations.

As a NATO member that has been waiting for decades for European Union (EU) membership, Turkey is seriously considering joining the BRICS grouping. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed his desire to join BRICS during his visit to China and the issue was discussed at a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers on June 10-11. Given the opposition of some European countries to Turkey's accession to the EU, Turkey sees joining BRICS as an alternative integration platform.

Turkey's participation in BRICS offers many economic and political advantages. BRICS offers a viable alternative for member countries and this platform emphasizes Turkey's great potential and scope. It is well known that Turkey is a member of NATO, is in a customs union with the EU and applied to join the European Economic Community 40 years ago. However, negotiations on Turkey's EU membership have long been stalled due to contentious issues such as human rights and foreign policy.

The United States and Western allies have expressed concern about Turkey's relations with Russia. In this context, Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President's public relations chief, stated that Turkey's interest in BRICS is welcome. However, the organization is unlikely to accept all 30 countries and therefore Turkey's membership is not guaranteed.

BRICS is a platform open to countries seeking a different political and economic system. Membership is based on the principles of sovereignty and equality of countries. Turkey's accession to BRICS will strengthen its economic ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries in Central Asia and connect it with China, Iran and India through projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the North-South Transport Corridor.

BRICS offers a huge market and Turkish products are welcomed in this market. Turkey's accession to BRICS will boost the country's economic potential and strengthen its strategic position in the region. As a country with NATO's second largest army, Turkey is looking for alternatives due to the delay in joining the EU.

The expansion of BRICS offers new opportunities for countries like Turkey. Turkey's accession to the BRICS will not completely cut its relations with the US and the EU, but rather diversify its economic and trade relations. Turkey's geographical location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it a strategic advantage.

In conclusion, Turkey's accession to BRICS could be a step forward to help the country realize its economic and political goals. BRICS membership would increase Turkey's regional and global influence and open up new trade and cooperation opportunities. While this does not mean that Turkey has abandoned its pursuit of EU membership, it shows that BRICS as an alternative integration platform is an attractive option.

Now let's take a look at the Turkish economy, which will add strength to BRICS.

The last two decades of the Turkish economy

In the mid to late 2000s, Turkey stood out as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. During this period, important steps were taken to fight inflation and new legislation gave the central bank more authority to ensure price stability. A new currency, the Turkish lira, replaced the old currency, which had lost value due to hyperinflation. These changes played an important role in bringing inflation under control.

Turkey's economic growth was supported by massive investment in industry, education and international trade. The country was geographically located as a bridge between the consumer markets and advanced industries of Europe and the natural resource wealth of the Middle East and Russia. This strategic location made Turkey attractive to both local and international investors.

However, Turkey's rapid economic growth did not last long. In 2013, after economic output peaked, the country entered a period of slow decline. During this period, the value of the Turkish lira began to fall steadily. The central bank was reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of hampering growth. The depreciating currency had a negative impact on Turkey's economic growth and inflation started to rise again. It is indeed remarkable that the downturn in the Turkish economy and the economic difficulties coincided with the political problems and the clash with US policies. Whenever Turkey tries to pursue national and independent policies, economic problems immediately follow!

Inflation and the massive depreciation of the Turkish lira have become the country's biggest major problem for the last five years. In 2005, the new currency replaced the old Turkish lira, which had depreciated due to hyperinflation. This process led to the fact that economists and participants of the economy began to consider this situation as a systemic problem.

The attempted coup in 2016 exacerbated political instability in Turkey. This event made foreign investors concerned about developments in Turkey and hesitant to invest. A year later, in a referendum motivated by the coup attempt, the country amended its constitution to give more power to the head of state, which indirectly meant that the new president could have much more control over issues such as interest rates.

These developments accelerated the depreciation of the Turkish lira and caused inflation rates to rise. The government put pressure on the central bank to keep interest rates low, which caused inflation to rise as high as 80%. This led to a major crisis, especially because of its negative effects on the working class.

On the other hand, it is also a fact that the Turkish economy is seriously manipulated from outside. In the 20th and 21st centuries, it is no secret that the economy is used as a tool of war between countries. Each country applies economic manipulations to countries that it sees as rivals, that it thinks are acting against its interests or that it is trying to exert political pressure on. Countries that realize this are known to take a front against these manipulations and try to protect themselves. Just like the current struggle of the BRICS to eliminate the dollar hegemony, or to put it more accurately, the whole world is trying to hunt the vampire feeding on its veins. Let's get back to our topic.

Based on the last 80 years, we know that countries have used various strategies to manipulate their competitors economically. These strategies can be through economic pressure, sanctions, trade barriers, currency manipulation, forcing high inflation, devaluation of the country's currency or other economic instruments.

The following examples illustrate that Turkey has been subjected to such economic manipulation at various times in the last 80 years. The lessons Turkey has learned from these processes play an important role in shaping its economic policies today.

1. Military coups in Turkey: It is known that after the 1950s there was a NATO wing structured within the state (which is similar in all countries!). The parties of this wing acted in favor of NATO and indeed American interests rather than national interests. Interestingly, whenever national programs have been implemented in Turkish political and economic life, there have been military or postmodern coups, memorandums and coup attempts. May 27, 1960, March 12, 1971, September 12, 1980, February 28, 1997, April 27, 2007, July 15, 2016 are some examples. The winners of these events have always been the United States and the losers have always been the Turkish people.
2. The 1970s Oil Crisis and Foreign Debt: The oil crisis of the 1970s severely affected oil import-dependent countries like Turkey. Rising oil prices increased Turkey's foreign debts and caused an economic crisis. In this period, the increase in foreign debts increased economic dependency and became a situation that could affect Turkey's foreign policies.
3. IMF Programs: After the 1980 coup d'état, Turkey was forced by known states to start implementing IMF (International Monetary Fund) economic programs. Although these programs seemed to be introduced to ensure economic stability, they included tight monetary policies and structural reforms. In the short term, these reforms led to economic contraction and social unrest. These IMF-recommended policies were seen in some quarters as economic manipulation. The country's critical industries and institutions were privatized.
4. 1994 Economic Crisis: In 1994, Turkey experienced a major economic crisis. High inflation, current account deficit and foreign debts caused the Turkish Lira to depreciate. Speculative attacks and rapid capital outflows by foreign investors further deepened the crisis. This crisis is an important example of external influences creating economic fragility in Turkey. Perhaps we say this because the country cannot afford to identify similar speculation in the past.
5. 2001 Economic Crisis: In 2001, Turkey suffered a major economic shock with a crisis in the banking sector. Weaknesses in the banking sector, financial manipulations and foreign capital outflows triggered the crisis. Although the loans from the IMF and the reforms implemented seemed to ensure economic stability, it was only in this process that debates on economic independence came to the fore. The country was forced to submit economically to the IMF and therefore politically to the US.
6. 2018 Currency Crisis: In 2018, Turkey entered a currency crisis following diplomatic tensions with the United States. US sanctions against Turkey and speculative foreign exchange transactions led to a rapid depreciation of the Turkish Lira. This crisis was seen as an example of economic manipulation.
7. The pastor Brunson Case: "I will destroy your economy!" echoed in the media and resulted in the depreciation of the Turkish lira; 

   July 25, 2018: Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he will impose large sanctions on Turkey if Pastor Brunson is not released: "The United States will impose large sanctions on Turkey for their long time detainment of Pastor Andrew Brunson, a great Christian, family man and wonderful human being. He is suffering greatly. This innocent man of faith should be released immediately!".

   
   

   August 10, 2018: Trump announced that he will double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Turkey, putting Turkey in a difficult economic situation: "I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"

   
   

   https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/26/andrew-brunson-trump-turkey-threaten-sanctions?CMP=share_btn_url

   
   

   https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG24M/

   
   

   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44974722

    

8. Joe Biden's election promises: Joe Biden's comments about the government in Turkey in an interview with the editorial board of the New York Times in 2019 caused widespread repercussions and controversy, especially in Turkey. He openly said that he would do everything he could to overthrow the government and this was broadcast everywhere. Biden characterized Erdogan as an authoritarian leader and stated that the US should take a tougher stance against Erdogan and would work to overthrow Erdogan "democratically and peacefully!!!" by supporting opposition parties in Turkey. And why? Because Turkey's national policies were again at odds with US interests, and the US wanted to secure the election by pointing the finger at various lobbies in domestic politics. And guess what happened as a result? The Turkish economy was again attacked by "unknown" people, the Turkish currency depreciated, real estate and commodity prices "strangely!" soared, and there was a terrible inflation.

“https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN25C04C/”

No matter how challenging Turkey's economic situation is, it is important to remember that the country has a very promising potential. Turkey has a large and skilled labor force, rich natural resources and a strategic location. These advantages suggest that Turkey can play an important role in the global economy.

However, some realistic solutions are needed to ensure economic stability. First, the central bank needs to regain its independence and raise interest rates to control inflation. Moreover, to solve Turkey's external borrowing problems, policies should be developed to reduce external debt rather than restricting the use of foreign exchange.

Political stability is also critical for Turkey to realize its economic potential. A stable political environment is necessary to win the confidence of foreign investors and encourage them to invest in the country. This will be a vital step for Turkey to sustain its economic growth and strengthen its role in the global economy.

No one, especially economists, can predict the future, but the OECD predicts that Turkey will be the world's fifth largest economy in purchasing power parity terms by 2060. This would also make it the largest economy in Europe and the Middle East. With the recent establishment of the Turan union, this potential will be significantly strengthened.

As can be seen, Turkey has faced major economic challenges over the last two decades. Problems such as inflation, currency depreciation and interest rate policies have negatively affected the country's economic stability. However, Turkey's potential and strategic advantages suggest that the country could become a major economic power in the future.

Achieving this goal requires a reorientation of economic policies and political stability. Turkey's strong fundamentals and promising economic potential, combined with the right policies and a stable political environment, can strengthen the country's role in the global economy and ensure sustainable growth.

Turkey has painfully learned that its "strategic partner", the United States, has never been its friend and that this "strategic partnership" is meant only for US interests. For this reason, it is a fact that instead of a unipolar perspective in world politics, Turkey is now turning towards new relations in which all parties will win in accordance with the win-win policy.

Geographically, Turkey has always been a bridge between the consumer markets and advanced industries of Europe and the natural resource riches of the Middle East and Russia. In recent years, it has become an energy hub with its investments in oil and gas pipelines and projects with friendly countries. On the one hand, it maintains its relations with the West as a member of NATO, but at the same time it is forging new partnerships with Russia, China and countries around the world. In this sense, BRICS offers very attractive advantages for Turkey. In particular, Turkey's position as a natural leader in the context of Islamic states, its position as the host of the Turkic states, its prestige and weight on African countries and its position to dominate a serious economy are similar advantages for BRICS. Turkey's participation in BRICS could give a serious impetus to the win-win policy mentioned above.

Turkey's Visit to China: What the Media Missed and Geopolitical Realities

We will be looking at the between the lines and the unspoken parts that are often ignored in the mainstream media, but are in fact much more important. What are the general results, what are the points that attract our attention? Let's start by answering these questions. The visit of Hakan Fidan, the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Turkey, to China and the historic speech he delivered there did not receive enough media coverage. The media only put in front of us the parts they could manipulate.

How has China been on Turkey's agenda so far? Turkey started to follow the world agenda more due to issues such as the Ukraine war, Israel's policies towards Palestine, the Azerbaijan-Armenia war and the Libya issue. However, China was not on the agenda in terms of political relations. However, trade relations between Turkey and China are at a very important level. Bilateral trade volume reached 48 billion dollars in 2023. This figure is much higher than our trade relations with some neighboring countries.

The Uyghur issue is a sensitive topic for Turkey and is brought up from time to time. However, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's speech made it clear who is right between the US and China in a bipolar world. Fidan made it clear that China is right on certain issues and that the US is wrong on these issues. This is an extraordinary speech and needs to be analyzed. Its geopolitical dimension is quite strong.

The Belt and Road Initiative and the Caspian trans-Caspian East-West Central Corridor Initiative are of great importance for Turkey. Fidan emphasized that these projects should be integrated and concrete steps should be taken. These statements show that Turkey fully supports China's territorial integrity and political sovereignty.

Fidan's statements on BRICS reveal Turkey's intention to strengthen its relations with this organization. These statements were widely covered by international agencies. However, this news has not been sufficiently covered in Turkey. How will Turkey's BRICS membership affect its relations with the West? The answer to this question depends on how geopolitical balances will change.

The US exploitation of the Uyghur issue against China makes Turkey's stance on this issue even more important. Fidan stated that Turkey fully supports armed terrorist movements against China. This means that Turkey criticizes the US policies on this issue.

The future shape of Turkey's relations with China depends on many factors. The Foreign Minister's statements during his visit to China are likely to strengthen Turkey's geopolitical position. BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor projects will solidify Turkey's position in the international arena.

In conclusion, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to China and the speeches he delivered there clearly demonstrate Turkey's strategic stance in international relations. The outcomes of this visit and the geopolitical balances should be closely monitored.

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